\u3000\u3000 Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) (688008)
On February 9, Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) released the performance express of 2021. It is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of 2.562 billion yuan in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 40.49%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 829 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.88%; Deduct non net profit of 617 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.73%.
Ddr5 memory upgrade core benefit target, 21q4 performance achieved rapid growth. With the official mass production and shipment of ddr5 memory interface chips and memory module supporting chips of the company and the continuous development of Jinchuan CPU business, the company's revenue increased significantly in the fourth quarter of 2021. 21q4 company achieved revenue of 969 million yuan, QoQ + 11.64% and yoy + 172.88%. Among them, the interconnection chip product line 21q4 achieved a revenue of 601 million yuan, QoQ + 39.97%, yoy + 76.55% and a gross profit margin of 69.21%; 21q4 company realized the net profit attributable to the parent company of 317 million yuan, QoQ + 54.78%, yoy + 40.18%, deducting the non net profit of 257 million yuan, QoQ + 40.32%, yoy + 236.67%.
In 2021, the product line of Jinchuan server platform increased in volume, boosting the rapid growth of annual revenue. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.562 billion yuan, yoy + 40.49%. The revenue mainly comes from the interconnection chip product line (including memory interface chip and memory module supporting chip, PCIe retimer chip, etc.) and Jinchuan server platform product line (including Jinchuan CPU and hybrid secure memory module). Among them, (1) in terms of Jinchuan server platform product line, after early marketing and customer cultivation, Jinchuan CPU business has made a breakthrough. The revenue of Jinchuan server platform product line in 2021 was 845 million yuan, yoy + 2750.92%, and the gross profit margin was 10.22%. (2) In 2021, the revenue of interconnection chip product line was 1.717 billion yuan, yoy-4.31%, and the gross profit margin was 66.72%.
In 2022, ddr5 memory interface chip + Jinchuan server platform is expected to increase in volume, which will accelerate the growth of the company. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 829 million yuan, yoy-24.88%, mainly due to: (1) in 2021, DDR4 memory interface chip entered the late stage of the product life cycle, the product price decreased compared with 2020, and the gross profit margin decreased from 73.22% in 20 years to 66.72% in 21 years; (2) In 2021, the sum of the fair value change income and investment income generated by the company's investment decreased by 84 million yuan compared with 2020; (3) The company continued to increase R & D investment, with R & D expenses of 370 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 23.33%. Looking forward to 2022, as Intel is expected to sell servers equipped with sapphirerapids chip, which supports 8-channel ddr5 memory, the company's ddr5 memory interface chip and memory module supporting chip are expected to accelerate the volume. In addition, the company expects that the amount of related party transactions between Jinchuan server platform and Intel will be 2.5 billion yuan in 22 years, yoy + 57.8%. Jinchuan server platform is also expected to drive the rapid growth of performance in 2022.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 829 / 13.77 / 1.926 billion yuan in 21 / 22 / 23, and the corresponding current price PE is 102 / 61 / 44 times respectively. As the core beneficiary of ddr5 memory upgrade, the company has continuously upgraded the memory interface chip and developed the product line of Jinchuan server platform, with significant long-term growth and maintained the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Upstream capacity supply is limited; Market competition intensifies.
