\u3000\u3000 Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) (603099)
The company is the only state-controlled listed company of the Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) Management Committee. It monopolizes the resources of Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) 5A scenic spots with “green water and green mountains” and “ice and snow”. It has unique passenger transport advantages. At the same time, it has been deeply engaged in hot spring development, hotel management and other diversified business forms for many years, Adhere to the strategy of “one industrialization (reserved international scenic spot) and four outputs (brand, management, culture and capital output)” and accelerate the transformation from resource advantage to profit advantage. Ice and snow tourism is supported by many factors such as the hot spots of the Winter Olympics and a number of favorable policies. In addition, Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) ushers in the era of high-speed rail, which is expected to stimulate the flow of scenic spots. With broad prospects in the future, the potential energy of ice and snow tourism accumulated by the company for a long time is expected to be further released. The company is under pressure for a short time, and the medium and long-term increment can be expected. Coverage for the first time, giving overweight rating.
Key points supporting rating
Ice and snow tourism has broad prospects supported by the hot spots of the Winter Olympics and policies. In recent years, the State Council, the Ministry of culture and tourism, the Sports Bureau and other departments have repeatedly issued policy supporting documents on strengthening the overall planning of the northeast region and cultivating ice and snow tourism. Ice and snow tourism has the characteristics of high per capita consumption, participation and experience. China Tourism Research Institute predicts that the number of ice and snow tourism will exceed 500 million by 2025. Driven by the hot spots of the Winter Olympic Games, the potential energy of ice and snow tourism accumulated by the company for a long time is expected to be further released.
The company has unique advantages in passenger transport, accelerating the formation of Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) tourism economic circle in the era of high-speed rail. The company is the largest tourist passenger transport company in Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) region, with the largest number of vehicles. Because external vehicles are prohibited from participating in the traffic operation in the scenic spot, the company has great advantages over the monopoly business environment. In addition, with the opening of baidun section of Shenjia high-speed railway, Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) officially ushered in the era of high-speed railway. There is great room for the expansion and improvement of the company’s scenic spot business loop. At the same time, it will strengthen the cultivation of urban sector and create more value.
Hotels, hot springs, travel agencies and other business forms go hand in hand to build a diversified ice and snow tourism industry chain. In addition to the tourism passenger transport business, the company has accumulated exclusive experience in hotel management, continued to develop hot spring resources, and travel agencies actively integrate resources to create products. The scenic spot management output business has a strong talent echelon, and adheres to the strategic layout of “one industrialization and four outputs”, which is expected to accelerate the transformation of resource advantages into profit advantages.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, we expect that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be -0.19 yuan, 0.23 yuan and 0.41 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be -56.8x, 46.0x and 25.9x respectively. Considering that the ice and snow tourism industry may obtain long-term development opportunities after the Winter Olympics, the “14th five year plan” also emphasizes the importance of ice and snow tourism as a subdivision track, and we give the company an overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
The risk that the passenger transport license cannot be extended at low cost; The risk of macroeconomic slowdown restraining tourism consumption demand; Covid-19 epidemic recurrence and seasonal characteristic risk.
