\u3000\u3000 Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) (300682)
Strategic capabilities and barriers are underestimated: 1) Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) as a participant in the technical architecture of the energy it industry, the industry knows how to build barriers. In 1996, it began to provide software services for the power industry, and gradually grew into a leading enterprise in the field of power informatization. It is one of the important builders of the technical system architecture of the whole industry; 2) In 2013, the company expanded the new energy track and started the industrial Internet upgrading strategy with ant. In 2019, in line with the trend of the energy industry, the company carried out the operation service business of energy digital platform, and gradually completed the transformation from the traditional 2B business model to the B2B2C business model. The core of the model upgrading is to change the counterparty transaction into partner cooperation, The revenue model extends from software projects to continuous operation services. For most software companies, delivery represents the end of services, while for Lanxin, software delivery means the beginning of continuous revenue generating operation services; 3) Close to customers and excellent service capability, it has established a service system throughout the country to serve 22 provincial and municipal companies of the State Grid and the South Grid and 270 million end customers. The complexity of user side project requirements and high technical requirements accelerate the improvement of industry concentration. Langxin has a market share of more than 40% in the informatization market of core business systems in China’s power service field, and its leading position is stable, The expansion of overseas regions has progressed smoothly from Central Asia to Africa and then to Latin America.
The capital expenditure of the two networks focused on digitization, and the basic market boom accelerated. Focusing on the transformation of capital expenditure of the two networks, it is expected to accelerate the prosperity of core systems such as Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) marketing and acquisition, and usher in a large-scale period for solutions such as big data application, IOT acquisition platform and application. According to the general report on the intelligent planning of the State Grid issued by the State Grid Corporation of China, the investment in the smart grid focuses on the field of transformation, distribution and use, and solves the pain points of improving the automation level of the power grid and operating the power grid safely and efficiently in three stages. In the first stage, from 2009 to 2010, the total investment of power grid was 551 billion yuan, and the intelligent investment was 34.1 billion yuan, accounting for 6.2% of the total investment of power grid; In the second stage, from 2011 to 2015, the total investment in power grid was 150 billion yuan, and the investment in intelligence was 175 billion yuan, accounting for 11.7% of the total investment; In the third stage, from 2016 to 2020, the total investment in power grid is 1400 billion yuan, and the investment in intelligence is 175 billion yuan, accounting for 12.5% of the total investment. It has become a trend to build a relatively independent professional application system with the power marketing retail trading system as the hub, which is interconnected based on standard API. Around the power end users, on the basis of power products and services, for the two power grid enterprises to tap generalized service products. The Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) base has significantly benefited from the reconstruction of the power grid marketing management system.
Under the background of double carbon, the supply and demand environment of power grid is complex, and the marketization of electricity price is the inevitable trend of smooth supply and demand in the medium term. The trend of power marketization is obvious, which is expected to drive the construction of digital platform for energy enterprises and support the marketization and normalization of demand side response. According to the function reconstruction of the market subject of the power supply and demand value chain, China’s power system reform can be roughly divided into three stages: 1) before the implementation of the power system reform plan in 2002, the first stage is the stage of integration of power generation, transmission, distribution and supply; 2) From 2002 to 2015, the second stage was the separation of power plant and power grid. After the implementation of the power reform plan in 2002, five power generation groups and two power grid companies were established; 3) The release of several opinions on further deepening the reform of power system in 2015 marked the third stage, that is, the separation stage of power generation, transmission and distribution. “Controlling the middle and liberalizing both ends” has become the general idea of power market-oriented reform. The market-oriented trend is expected to accelerate. According to the data of the national development and Reform Commission, in 2021, all power trading centers across the country organized and completed 3778.74 billion kwh of market trading electricity, with a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, accounting for 45.5% of the electricity consumption of the whole society, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3 percentage points. Previously, the construction of power transmission and transformation system did not consider the large-scale consumption of renewable energy, which is more similar to the construction and operation idea of “determining sales by production”. With the large-scale centralized grid connection on the supply side and the significant increase in the proportion of electrification on the demand side, the power grid investment will undergo structural changes: first, the power grid investment will continue to tilt towards the distribution network; Second, the proportion of intelligent and information investment related to the construction of power Internet of things will increase significantly. Through the information entropy reduction of energy digitization, the thermodynamic entropy increase of energy physical system is stabilized. With its characteristics of multi-source coordination and multi energy complementarity, the energy Internet solves the problems of power system stability and power grid “pollution” caused by new energy consumption. The company is the core beneficiary enterprise of electricity price marketization, and the application of 2C / 2B comprehensive energy services blooms at multiple points. 1) The marketing system is basically stable, and the company’s card position is the core profit link of the power grid. Since 1996, it has been deeply engaged in the field of power service marketing informatization for more than 20 years, with a market share of more than 40%. The switching cost of this business is high and the pattern is stable. At the same time, the industry relies on know-how and technology accumulation, and the barriers are very high. Relying on long-term accumulation, the company has formed a full product line in the field of power marketing, and rapidly cultivated medium and Taiwan capacity, with strong market response. 2) The company’s 2B energy digital service business has increased the reserve of relevant personnel and R & D investment, with more than 500 new R & D personnel. Key projects are progressing smoothly. The revenue of energy digital service business has increased by about 40% year-on-year in 21 years, of which the photovoltaic cloud platform has been connected to more than 10000 photovoltaic power stations. The company’s building intelligent energy-saving service platform has realized the functions of hospital Breakthroughs of enterprises, parks and other customers; 3) 2C’s energy digital operation business has grown rapidly, the platform transaction volume has increased rapidly, and the user activity has continued to improve. Taking the electric vehicle aggregation charging business as an example, by the end of 2021, the number of new transit aggregation charging connected to charging pile operators has exceeded 400, the number of charging piles in operation has exceeded 300000, and the number of new energy charging motor vehicles serving has exceeded 2.1 million, The charging capacity is nearly 560 million kwh, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 8 times. The revenue model has also expanded from service fee sharing to power wholesale sales and other fields. Maintain high investment in energy services to ensure long-term growth.
Maintain the “buy” rating. We predict that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.621/6244/8079 billion yuan, with a corresponding growth rate of 36.4% / 35.1% / 29.4%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 8.70/12.16/1591 billion yuan. Considering the upgrading of the company’s business model and the high growth of revenue growth, we will maintain the “buy” rating.
