\u3000\u3000 Qingdao Novelbeam Technology Co.Ltd(688677) (688677)
As the exclusive supplier of Stryker, the company fully benefits from the growth of the global fluorescent hard mirror market. The global market of rigid tube endoscope maintained stable growth. In 2019, the scale is US $5.69 billion, which will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.9% to US $7.23 billion in 2024. Based on the advantages of its clinical use scenarios, frost Sullivan expects the total sales of equipment to increase to US $3.87 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.3% from 2019 to 2024. Stryker occupies 78% of the global fluorescent hard mirror market. The company is the only supplier of its equipment core components, so it will fully benefit.
China's endoscope market is growing rapidly, and domestic fluorescent endoscopes will gradually replace imports. China's hard mirror market is in the stage of rapid rise. The market scale will reach 6.53 billion yuan in 2019. Frost Sullivan is expected to grow to 11 billion yuan by 2024. China's fluorescent hard mirror Market in 2019 was only 110 million yuan, accounting for only 1.7%. We expect that China's fluorescent hard mirror market will grow rapidly driven by penetration. Since there are few imported fluorescent hard mirror products in China, domestic products are expected to replace imported white hard mirror products through fluorescence function and domestic advantages. We believe that domestic fluorescent hard mirror products will become the main driving force for the growth of the industry.
The whole machine products have been launched one after another, cutting into a broad market, and the performance is expected to be rapid and large-scale. The market space in the middle reaches of hard mirror is dozens of times that in the upper reaches. The company expands to the middle reaches through R & D and production of complete machines with its own brand. In November 2021, the company's own brand 1080p white hard mirror has been approved, 4K high-definition fluorescent hard mirror system has been approved in January 2022, and high-definition defogging fluorescent endoscope will be approved in mid-2022. As the exclusive supplier of Stryker, the company's products have been fully tested by the market. By means of direct sales in Shandong Province and distribution outside Shandong Province, and using the unique function of surgical imaging platform, it is expected that the company's fluorescent hard mirror will be in large quantity rapidly after it is listed.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we estimate that the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 316, 441 and 558 million yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 120, 173 and 220 million yuan, the EPS will be 138, 99 and 2.53 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 47, 32 and 25 times respectively. As the core supplier of the whole machine and the self-made fluorescent mirror in the "boom period", the company is expected to fully benefit from the rapid growth of the whole machine and the high performance of the self-made fluorescent mirror in the upper market. Therefore, the company is expected to buy the whole machine as the core supplier of the whole machine in the "boom period".
Risk factors: the risk of high dependence on the sales of Stryker, the risk that the sales of complete products are less than expected after listing, and the risk that the epidemic continues to affect the sales of fluorescent hard mirror industry.
