\u3000\u3000 Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) (300811)
Events
Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) released the annual performance forecast for 2021: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 will be 115-125 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.95% - 17.34%. It is estimated that the net profit after deducting non recurring profits and losses will be 109-119 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.06% - 21.21%.
Key investment points
The impact of rising raw material prices is expected to subside, and the gross profit margin has room for recovery
In reply to the inquiry letter of the exchange, the company mentioned that affected by the rising prices of pure iron, silicon and aluminum, the direct raw material cost of the company's soft magnetic particle core reached 8075 yuan / ton from January to September 2021, an increase of 26.87% compared with 2020, resulting in a decrease of 4.39% in the gross profit margin in the first nine months of 2021 compared with 2020. In the short term, the prices of major raw materials have risen too fast, and the prices of pure iron, silicon and aluminum have reached a high level for many years. We believe that the high price of raw materials is not normal. The prices of silicon and iron raw materials have fallen from the high level, and the cost of raw materials is expected to fall further in the long run. In addition, the company has initiated measures to deal with the rise of raw material prices, conducted the downward pressure of raw material price rise and strengthened supply chain management. Therefore, we believe that the impact of the rapid rise in raw material prices is expected to subside, and there is room for the gross profit margin to rise.
The development of light storage and new energy vehicles is accelerated, and the company is expected to continue to benefit
At present, the company's magnetic particle core products are mainly used in the fields of photovoltaic inverter, variable frequency air conditioner, UPS, new energy vehicle and charging pile. The company's main business income structure is divided according to the needs of the terminal industry. The proportion of photovoltaic business income of the company was 39% in 2018 and 51% in the first three quarters of 2021, showing a steady upward trend. The iron silicon soft magnetic powder core produced by the company is suitable for high-frequency series photovoltaic inverter. The company will continue to benefit from the steady growth of photovoltaic installation and the increase of the proportion of distributed photovoltaic. In terms of energy storage, benefiting from policy guidance, the market is about to break out. Relying on high-quality customer resources in the photovoltaic field, the company has directly entered the energy storage converter market to seize the market opportunity. In addition, as another high-quality track, new energy vehicles and high-voltage charging pile platform, the company continued to layout and successfully entered the Byd Company Limited(002594) supply chain.
Generally speaking, as a global leading enterprise of soft magnetic particle core, the company has been immersed in the inductance and magnetic material industry for many years. At present, the company has carried out extensive technical and market cooperation with a large number of well-known manufacturers at home and abroad. Under the background of the rapid development of optical storage and new energy vehicles, the company's soft magnetic particle core business is expected to continue to benefit.
Layout chip inductors, ushering in new growth points
The chip inductor market is large and has strict requirements for magnetic materials. At present, the loss of NPX products launched by the company is close to ferrite, and 70% of the volume space can be saved. The metal chip inductor developed by the company may partially replace the ferrite chip inductor. In June 2021, the company signed the system development partnership agreement with Infineon. The two sides will combine the company's metal magnetic particle core, chip inductive components and other products with Infineon's semiconductor products for joint development in specific application fields. At present, the company's chip inductor has completed the construction of small batch production line. At present, in the user test and verification stage, the large-scale production line is also in the process of construction, which is expected to become a new growth point of the company in the future.
Profit forecast
It is predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 123 million yuan, 196 million yuan and 280 million yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 119 million yuan, 190 million yuan and 2.70 million yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 61, 38 and 27 times respectively, and the "recommended" investment rating will be given.
Risk tips
1) risk of substantial price reduction of products; 2) The price of upstream raw materials rose sharply; 3) Downstream demand is lower than expected; 4) The risk of intensified industry competition; 5) Production capacity construction progress is less than expected; 6) Market systemic risk
