\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) (300772)
The pioneer of China's wind power industry and the rising wind power complete machine enterprise
The company is the first enterprise engaged in wind turbine research and manufacturing in China. Benefiting from the high growth of the wind power industry in the future and the large-scale cost reduction of the whole machine link, the company is expected to seize the opportunity to enter the first echelon of the industry. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 480 / 639 / 794 million yuan and EPS will be 1.42/1.89/2.34 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 24.4/18.3/14.7 times respectively, and the "buy" rating will be given for the first time.
The medium and long-term growth of wind power has a good certainty, and the development prospect of the whole machine is good
In the long run, combined with the consumption target of wind power generation and the transformation and upgrading of old wind farms, it is expected that the annual new installed capacity demand of China's wind power during the 14th Five Year Plan period will be more than 55gw. In the short term, combined with the bidding scale in 2021, two batches of large base projects and offshore wind power that is expected to usher in an upward cycle in 2023, the high business cycle of the wind power industry in the next two years has begun to be established. Under the trend of large-scale, the whole machine link is in the process of rapid iterative upgrading and cost reduction of products. The whole machine manufacturers with core technology advantages, strong supply chain management and control ability and good cost control are expected to obtain new market share under the trend of large-scale development.
The market share increases significantly, and the profit level is expected to be stable and good under the trend of large-scale
From January to October 2021, Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) won 13.39% of the bidding in the open market, which is close to the top three enterprises. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the company's orders on hand were 14.1gw, which was very close to the head enterprises, consolidating the trend of increasing the company's market share in the future. With the delivery of megawatt models and the increase of market share, the company is expected to usher in better performance growth and maintain a good profit level in the future.
Two seas strategy + two wings business layout will contribute new performance growth points in the future
Adapting to the industry trend, the company actively laid out the two seas strategy. At present, the company has made breakthroughs in the development of offshore wind turbines and has launched corresponding models; The overseas market has made a breakthrough. The newly signed overseas projects of the company in the first half of 2021 totaled 475.5mw. The two wings business has been actively promoted, and the results have begun to show. In terms of wind farm investment and operation, as of June 2021, the capacity of grid connected wind farm projects controlled by the company has reached 250MW; In terms of post market business of wind power, in the first half of 2021, the company has signed a post market sales contract with an amount of 167 million yuan.
Risk tip: the installed capacity of the wind power industry is less than expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, the competition in the wind power industry intensifies, and the increase of the company's market share is less than expected.
