In 2020 and 2021, China's travel demand is under pressure, and the travel radius and decision-making cycle are shortened under the background of epidemic normalization, which have become annual keywords. In 2021, China's tourism market was still repeatedly suppressed by the epidemic. In 2021, China's total tourism revenue recovered to 51% in the same period in 2019, and the number of people recovered to 54%. Under the background of the normalization of the epidemic, the travel demand showed the characteristics of shortening the decision-making cycle, increasing preference for medium and short distance peripheral tourism, and the rise of local tourism demand. In addition, in the medium and long-term dimension, immersive leisure tourism, high-end vacation tourism The demand for parent-child travel is growing, and the trend remains unchanged. At the same time, we found that the tourism market recovered faster during the public small and long holidays, and the potential of normalized travel needs to be released.
In 2022, we believe that China's tourism on the policy side is expected to usher in more positive changes. 1) The epidemic prevention policy is expected to usher in new changes: in terms of national epidemic prevention and control, referring to the epidemic prevention and control policy of Shanghai, we believe that the experience of accurate epidemic prevention and control is expected to be popularized in more regions, so as to reduce the impact on normal economic activities, reduce residents' panic and stabilize consumption wishes. At the same time, considering the steady progress of covid-19 specific drugs and vaccines outside China, we are positive and optimistic about the national epidemic prevention and control in 2022. 2) Tourism support policies are expected to be strengthened: tourism has a significant effect on enriching the people, and the development of tourism has an obvious multiplier effect on the boost of local GDP. According to the calculation of the world tourism organization, every 1 yuan of direct income of tourism will bring 4.3 yuan of value-added benefits to relevant industries of the national economy. Boosting tourism is expected to become an important starting point for local governments to boost the economy in 2022 and 2023. In 2020, the Ministry of culture, culture and tourism will launch a number of tourism industry support policies. At the same time, referring to the precedent that many governments have issued consumption vouchers to stimulate tourism consumption after the financial crisis, if the epidemic can be effectively controlled in 2022 / 23, local governments are expected to continue to stimulate tourism consumption by promoting ticket concessions and other ways.
In terms of subject matter, we are optimistic about the traditional natural scenic spots with strong cost control ability and leisure scenic spots with excellent profit model. 1) Natural scenic spots of single project: the income structure is simple and mainly depends on tickets, cableways, passenger transport and hotels. The overall income recovery degree is basically the same as that of national tourism income. Scenic spots suitable for short distance travel have a good recovery degree, including the Yangtze River Delta, Sichuan and Chongqing. We believe that the demand for short-term and short-distance travel is still the main tone of the tourism market in 2022, Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) , Mount Emei and Mount Jiuhua are expected to continue to benefit and achieve rapid recovery, Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) is also expected to continue to benefit from the popularity of ice and snow sports, and the cost side enterprise's ability to control expenses is one of the important elements to maintain performance resilience in the epidemic and restore elasticity after the epidemic, including Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) Emeishan has outstanding performance and strong ability to control fees; 2) Multi project leisure scenic spots: scenic spot enterprises with higher business diversity perform better on the revenue side under the impact of the epidemic. Among them, Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) with its excellent profit model and strong cost control ability, it still maintains a high profit level under the impact of the epidemic. The net profit in the first three quarters of 2021 recovered to 34% in the same period of 2019. Gubeishui town under China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) benefited from the high growth of surrounding tourism demand and maintained a good recovery. With strong profitability, Wuzhen still recorded positive revenue under the background of large impact of the epidemic on passenger flow. The two towns recorded a total profit of 150 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2021.
In the long run, under the background of the upgrading of middle-class consumption and the return of high-end outbound tourists, the trend of high-end leisure vacation is booming. The small family structure catalyzes the rising demand for parent-child travel. Fosun travel, which focuses on the demand for medium and high-end vacation, continues to promote the upgrading of medium and high-end product line Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) and Haichang ocean park with the theme of card parent-child Ocean Park, is expected to continue to benefit.
Investment suggestion: with the successful launch of covid-19 vaccine and specific drugs, we believe that the epidemic situation in China is expected to be effectively controlled in 2022. At the same time, even if the epidemic situation is still repeated in a small range, we believe that the epidemic prevention and control policy is also expected to be accurate, reduce the panic caused by the repeated epidemic situation on Residents' consumption and travel, and look forward to the improvement of the epidemic situation, The high-end demand for high-frequency peripheral short distance travel and return outbound travel has driven the rapid repair of China's tourism market. Focus on recommending Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) natural scenic spots with high performance flexibility, pay attention to Emei Shan Tourism Company Limited(000888) , and Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) with excellent profit model.
Risk tips: the impact of the epidemic exceeds the expected risk, policy risk, and the progress of new projects is less than the expected risk
