Key investment points
Weekly resumption: the rise and fall of this week ranked 25th, and SW passenger car PE was in the historical quantile of 94%. SW auto fell 1.1%, underperforming the market by 2.3pct. In addition to SW auto parts, SW passenger cars, SW commercial trucks, SW commercial passenger cars and SW automobile services are on the rise. Among the 28 industries in Shenwan level, the automobile sector ranked 25th this week, ranking lower. In terms of valuation, since 2011, the PE / Pb of SW passenger cars have been in the historical 94% / 93% quantile respectively, and the quantile is the same as last week; PE / Pb of SW parts are at the historical 68% / 62% quantile respectively, with the quantile of - 2pct / - 5pct compared with last week. Horizontal comparison, passenger car sector valuation in PE is higher than white appliances than Baijiu, PB is lower than white household appliances and Baijiu; The valuation of auto parts sector is lower than that of computer and higher than that of media in terms of PE and Pb. (this week specifically refers to 2022.02.05 ~ 2022.02.12, the same below. If the year is not indicated before the month / quarter in the text, it is the current year of 2022 by default)
Boom tracking: the shortage of chips continued to improve, and retail sales fell month on month; Enterprise & Channel replenishment. According to the passenger Federation, the average daily retail sales volume of passenger cars was 66180 from January 24 to 31, with a year-on-year increase of - 32% and a month on month increase of - 29%; In January, the cumulative average daily retail sales of passenger cars was 67426, with a year-on-year increase of - 4% and a month on month increase of - 1%; From January 24 to 31, the average daily wholesale sales volume was 83921, with a year-on-year increase of - 5% and a month on month increase of - 21%; In January, the total daily average wholesale sales of passenger cars was 66829, with a year-on-year increase of + 2% and a month on month increase of - 12%. The output of narrow passenger cars in December was 2.466 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 7.2% and a month on month increase of + 10.6%; The wholesale sales volume was 2.366 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.3% and a month on month increase of + 10.0%; In December, there were 2189300 strong traffic insurance in the industry, with a month on month ratio of - 14.71% / + 28.99% respectively. Inventory: in December, the overall enterprise inventory of the passenger car industry was + 100000 units, and the channel inventory was + 2000 units.
Key focus: the price of raw materials rose slightly. According to our self built passenger car raw material price index model, weighted by the five raw material price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel, the overall raw material price index of passenger cars this week (02.07-02.11) was + 3.92% month on month (01.24-01.28), and the price indexes of glass, aluminum, plastic, natural rubber and steel were + 5.73% / + 6.26% / + 2.35% / + 2.48% / + 3.73% month on month (MOM) respectively.
Investment suggestion: still optimistic about investment opportunities in the automobile sector. The triple cycle resonance in 2022, the golden age of autonomy: 1) chip mitigation brings the demand for replenishment of the passenger car industry, and 2021q4-2022q3 enters the cycle of continuous improvement of production and sales data year-on-year. 2) Intelligent + electric + hybrid, a new round of new cars of independent brands have been listed one after another, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to rise, driving the market share of independent brands to achieve higher quality. 3) All independent brands actively promote overseas strategies, and exports will continue to enter the high growth channel. The whole vehicle segment recommends [ Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) + ideal car + Xiaopeng Car + Byd Company Limited(002594) + Geely car + Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) + Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) + Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ], and pays attention to [Weilai Car + Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) + Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) ]. Parts section recommends [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Foryou Corporation(002906) + Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) + Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) + Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) + China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) + Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) + Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ], and pays attention to [ Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) + Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) + Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) ].
Risk tip: the impact of chip shortage exceeded expectations, and the price war of passenger cars exceeded expectations.
