Zhou's view: the improvement of social finance is good for the repair of insurance valuation, and is optimistic about the two main opportunities of securities companies
This week, the non bank sector significantly outperformed the market, social finance exceeded expectations, the valuation of undervalued non bank leaders was repaired, and the undervalued insurance sector rebounded significantly. At the moment when the market style switches to value stocks, the inclination towards undervalued value in trading has become the leading factor of short-term logic. Social finance exceeds expectations, further benefits big finance, and attaches importance to the current allocation opportunities of insurance and securities companies. In terms of stock selection, the repair of insurance valuation driven by the transaction level is expected to continue. From the short-term to medium-term perspective, the fundamentals of securities companies with undervalued value are better than those in the long-term perspective. At present, the valuation of the subject matter of the wealth management track is at the bottom, waiting for the improvement of data and fundamentals. When the credit inflection point is established, recommend Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) with large market expectation difference.
Insurance: Social Finance exceeded expectations in January. Under the guidance of transaction level, the valuation repair of insurance stocks is expected to continue
(1) on February 10, the central bank released financial data. In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 394.4 billion, and social finance increased by 6.17 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 984.2 billion. Both new RMB loans and social finance reached a record high in a single month and exceeded market expectations; By the end of January, the growth rate of social finance stock was 10.5%, which had improved year-on-year for three consecutive months, and the policy was effective. (2) Insurance stocks continued the trend of outperforming the non bank and CSI 300 indexes since January. The insurance index rose 11.13% this week. Social finance exceeded expectations, enhanced the market's confidence in economic improvement, made credit effective, and benefited the insurance asset side and liability side. At the same time, the valuation of insurance stocks and institutional positions were at an all-time low. Pessimistic expectations were fully reflected, and the improvement of social finance catalyzed the valuation repair of insurance stocks. (3) We believe that at present, the insurance liability side has not seen any signs of improvement, NBV may still be under pressure in the first quarter, the policy continues the trend of strict supervision, and the fundamental highlights are not obvious. At this stage, the market style is biased towards undervalued varieties, and the improvement of social finance is conducive to the expected repair of the market on the investment side of insurance stocks. Under the guidance of transaction level factors, the repair of the valuation of insurance stocks is expected to continue. The subject with greater flexibility on the investment side is the main line at this stage. It is recommended to repair Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) with large space on the asset side, {601601601} with leading transformation, benefit subject China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) and AIA.
Securities companies: the profit boom is relatively good, and they are optimistic about the opportunities of two main lines of securities companies
(1) after the Spring Festival holiday, the new issuance of funds is weak. This week, 15 new equity + mixed funds were established, with a scale of 6.8 billion and a single product scale of 450 million; The average share based turnover on the two Sundays before and after the year was less than trillion. As of February 11, the average share based turnover in 2022 was 1.11 trillion, down from - 2.3% in 2021; As of February 10, the balance of the two financial institutions was 1.72 trillion, down - 6% from the beginning of the year. (2) Affected by the decline of the stock market in January, high-frequency data such as funds, trading volume and two financial services fell, while the securities industry still has a good relative profit boom under the support of steady growth of ownership, wealth management and institutional business growth. The short-term logic of securities companies with undervalued head is more smooth at the transaction level and fundamentals, and the valuation of the great wealth management track returns to a safe position. We think there are still opportunities for securities companies to recommend China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) and benefit from Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares) and China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) .
Combination of beneficial objects
Securities companies: China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ;
Insurance: Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , AIA;
Diversified Finance: Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) .
Risk warning: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on the profits of securities companies and insurance companies; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
