The price is limited by policy, but there is no danger of long-term cooperation. Steady growth and transformation are the main line
The price of thermal coal operated smoothly this week, but it has begun to be under pressure due to the price limit policy of the national development and Reform Commission, and there is a downward expectation; This week, the coal price of origin has been the first to respond to the policy reduction. In the later stage, it is judged that the low temperature, rain and snow weather will still support the daily consumption of the power plant in the short term. With the acceleration of the resumption of work in the downstream, the overall coal consumption demand is still expected to be strong. At the same time, the origin supply will also recover rapidly under the supply guarantee requirements of the national development and Reform Commission, and the fundamentals may be strong in both supply and demand. If the influence of policies is not considered, the coal price is expected to operate at a high level and stably. The main driving factor of the current coal price may no longer be fundamental. This week, the national development and Reform Commission held a price stabilization meeting to increase the price limit again. The pit / port price limit standard was lowered to 700 / 900 yuan, and the coal mines with excessive price rise were criticized by name. At present, the pressure on the high coal price is obvious. With the pit mouth successively reducing the quotation, the coal price may quickly fall back to the price limit requirement in the short term. In March, with the warming of temperature, the demand will weaken seasonally, but the supply side may be tightened gradually, and the safety production will return to the focus of policy. The high load production intensity may not be sustainable, the production intensity may match the demand, and the decline of coal price may be limited. Judging from the coal stock market, the price stabilization of the national development and Reform Commission has disturbed the market, but it has long been a market consensus that there is a policy ceiling for the spot price of power coal, and the impact on the coal price of Changxie is limited. The fundamentals of gaochangxie coal enterprises remain stable. The investment logic of the coal sector may mainly focus on the two main lines of “stable growth” and “transformation”: in terms of “stable growth”, the infrastructure real estate chain benefits, which is good for the coal coke steel industry chain, and the peak of steel carbon can delay the demand for coking coal. In addition, the price of coking coal is determined by the market and the policy is not controlled, so the coking coal sector still has obvious elasticity; In terms of “transformation”, under the background of carbon neutrality, the willingness of coal enterprises to increase production capacity has decreased significantly. In the future, coal prices will remain high and endogenous growth is insufficient, but epitaxial growth will become the mainstream. Coal enterprises are highly profitable and have the ability to make transformation, and the future opportunity period is within the next 5-10 years. At present, the undervalued characteristics of coal stocks are obvious. Under the current macro policy expectation of stable growth and wide credit, we believe that the coal sector has high allocation value and are optimistic about the valuation and repair of the sector. Targets with stable performance and high dividends: Yankuang energy, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) ; Targets with expected growth benefits: Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Guizhou Panjiang Refined Coal Co.Ltd(600395) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) ; Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) transformation target beneficiaries: Power Investment energy, Gansu Jingyuan Coal Industry And Electricity Power Co.Ltd(000552) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group (H shares); Object of benefit from debt restructuring: Wintime Energy Co.Ltd(600157) .
Coal power industry chain: this week, the power coal price operated smoothly, and the national development and Reform Commission strengthened price limit
This week (February 7-february 11, 2022), the price of thermal coal operated smoothly, and the quotation of thermal coal in QinGang was still stable at 1010 yuan, but it has begun to be under pressure due to the price limit policy of the national development and Reform Commission, and there is a downward expectation; This week, the coal price of origin has been the first to respond to the policy reduction. From the perspective of fundamentals, in terms of demand, some downstream industrial enterprises have not fully resumed work in the first week of the Spring Festival this week, and the industrial power load still needs to be restored. However, the low-temperature weather continues to support the high level of civil power load, and the daily consumption level of the power plant is generally high. Considering the high inventory of the power plant and the downward expectation of coal price, the demand for replenishment is suspended; In terms of supply, some mines at the origin end still need to resume production after the Lantern Festival. Large and medium-sized mines resume work faster than the demand end, and the supply is looser than before the festival and during the holidays. However, considering that the demand has not weakened as scheduled, the overall supply is slightly tight.
Coal coke steel industry chain: both coke and coke are weak this week. After the festival, steel enterprises limited production to suppress the demand for coal coke
Coke: the coke price fell this week, and the pressure on the demand side was obvious. In terms of demand, the centralized replenishment of downstream steel mills before the festival has basically ended, and the inventory has been at an all-time high. The production restriction of steel mills in North China during the Winter Olympic Games has been gradually implemented, the operating rate has fallen sharply, and the demand side has weakened in stages; In terms of supply, the production restriction of coke enterprises promotes the decline of operating rate, but the strength is weaker than that of steel enterprises, and the short-term supply is relatively loose. Coking coal: the price of coking coal origin fell this week, and the fundamentals were reversed after the festival. On the demand side, coke steel enterprises increased their efforts to limit production, superimposed the impact of high downstream inventory, and the pace of coke coal procurement slowed down; On the supply side, after the festival, the producing areas have resumed production, and the supply has gradually returned to normal release. The short-term supply of coking coal fundamentals was slightly surplus, and the price of coking coal began to fall under pressure.
Risk tip: downside risk of economic growth, mismatch risk of supply and demand, accelerated substitution risk of renewable energy
