Baijiu has been arranged to the interval, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) spring festival performance is better.
From February 7 to February 11, the food and beverage index rose or fell by 0.3%, ranking 22nd in the primary sub industry, about 0.5pct lower than Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. Among the sub industries, dairy products (3.8%), snacks (3.6%) and health products (3.2%) are relatively leading. The market style after the festival is dominated by the theme of “stable growth”, and the heavy positions of funds such as food and beverage, electronics and new energy perform poorly. But there are many bright spots in food and drink. The Baijiu sector is benefiting from the demand for liquor consumption in Spring Festival, and the trend of upgrading is obvious. The enthusiasm and cash flow of terminal goods preparation during the Spring Festival were significantly improved, and the stock price also rebounded after the festival. After the current round of adjustment, the Baijiu sector has dropped to a reasonable layout area. High base number, Spring Festival consumption and other issues have become the consensus of the market. From the perspective of the whole year, we can see clearly that the industry has positive factors: rapid restores after consumption scenes, continuous education of consumers, upgrading of product structure, and more refined channel management. This also promotes the differentiation of Baijiu industry. We still hold high Baijiu and some high-end brands, and recommend Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) continuously. Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and other high-quality targets.
Among popular products, dairy products perform better. Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) during the Spring Festival, the dynamic sales of products are benign, the Spring Festival time is misplaced and the demand for gifts is strong, and the high-end milk performs better. It is expected that during the Spring Festival, Jindian and anmuxi will maintain double-digit growth, and the basic white milk will also grow rapidly. At present, the channel inventory is benign, the competition is relatively relaxed, and the purchase and gift promotion is slowing down. Considering that the supply and demand of raw milk is still tight in the first quarter, the industry is still in a state of rational competition. The price of condiments was raised before the festival, and the dealers opened the rhythm of goods preparation in advance. The dynamic sales during the Spring Festival were smooth as a whole, and still maintained a benign growth. Affected by the festival promotion, the new price has not been fully implemented in the terminal channel. It is expected that the industry will generally support the price in the off-season after the festival. Considering the low base in the same period and the slowdown of the impact of community group purchase, it is expected that the condiment industry will generally usher in accelerated growth in the second quarter, and now it has configuration value.
Recommended combination: Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089)
(1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) cancel the unpacking policy of Feitian Maotai liquor, and the price difference between the original box and bulk bottle is expected to narrow, which is conducive to the development of marketization. The price increase of Maotai liquor is expected to rise. Considering the supply of base liquor, the planned revenue target is expected to accelerate in 2022. The company has room to move calmly in terms of volume and price, and the logic of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future is smooth. (2) Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) recently, the wholesale price has rebounded, the channel inventory is low, and the shipment is more stable than that in the early stage. Considering the changes of quotas inside and outside the plan, it is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2022. (3) Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) in the fourth quarter, the goods were strictly controlled and the superimposed expenses were accelerated, resulting in a slowdown in revenue and a decline in net interest rate. In 2022, the company firmly pursues higher quality development. It is expected that the product structure will be significantly improved and the annual performance will maintain rapid growth. (4) Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) the price increase has a positive impact on costs and channel profits. The condiment industry is slowly repaired, and the company also shows a recovery trend. Considering the price increase, it is expected to return to the normal growth level in 2022. Proposed layout and long-term holding. (5) Cabio Biotech (Wuhan) Co.Ltd(688089) : the draft equity incentive was issued. After the implementation of the new national standard, the milk powder industry started a new round of formula upgrading, accelerating the medium and high-end of the milk powder industry. The company is expected to fully benefit from the dividend of the new round of formula upgrading. At the same time, the second growth curve of SA is opened, and the cosmetics market is expected to relay.
Risk tips: economic downturn, food safety, fluctuations in raw material prices, lower than expected recovery in consumer demand, etc.
