Key investment points:
Current market review
In the current period (2.5 – 2.12), the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3462.95, up 3.02%; The CSI rose by 4600.82% to close at 4600.1%; SME 100 closed at 8969.67, down 1.19%; In the current period, Shenwan pharmaceutical and biological industry index closed at 9419.72, down 2.73%, ranking 29th among Shenwan’s 31 primary industry indexes. The seven secondary sectors all outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, and the sectors of traditional Chinese medicine, chemical agents, pharmaceutical commerce and biological products outperformed the small and medium-sized enterprises by 100. Important information
The National Health Commission issued the latest notice to clarify the development direction of public hospitals
On February 9, the Department of system reform of the National Health Commission issued the notice of the Secretariat of the leading group for medical reform of the State Council on implementing the opinions on promoting the high-quality development of public hospitals, in order to implement the opinions of the general office of the State Council on promoting the high-quality development of public hospitals (Guo Ban Fa [2021] No. 18), The Secretariat of the medical reform leading group of the State Council established an evaluation mechanism to promote the high-quality development of public hospitals.
National Medical Insurance Administration: this year, we will carry out centralized procurement of spine consumables in orthopedics and expand the scope of centralized procurement of Chinese patent medicines
On February 11, the State Information Office held a regular policy briefing. In terms of expanding the coverage of centralized mining, it is ready to carry out centralized procurement of spine consumables in orthopedics this year. Based on the alliance procurement organized by some provinces last year, the scope of Chinese patent medicine should be further expanded in an orderly manner this year.
The State Food and drug administration carried out special rectification, focusing on cracking down on three types of behaviors
On February 11, the State Food and Drug Administration held a video conference on the in-depth implementation of the national special rectification action on drug safety to re deploy, re emphasize and re implement the in-depth implementation of the special rectification action on drug safety. The meeting made it clear that the special rectification action will adhere to the in-depth special rectification and establish and improve the long-term mechanism, strictly prevent, manage and control quality and safety risks, and focus on the in-depth special rectification of drug safety.
Core view
In the current period, Shenwan pharmaceutical and biological industry index closed at 9419.72, down 2.73%, ranking 29th among Shenwan’s 31 primary industry indexes. The seven secondary sectors all outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, and the sectors of traditional Chinese medicine, chemical agents, pharmaceutical commerce and biological products outperformed the small and medium-sized enterprises by 100.
In terms of the epidemic situation, as of February 12, the newly confirmed cases of the epidemic in China remained at a low level. The number of newly confirmed cases in the world every day decreased compared with the peak at the end of January, but the newly confirmed cases in a single day were still more than 2 million. In terms of covid-19 vaccination, covid-19 vaccination has made steady progress. According to the data of China’s National Health Commission, China had received covid-19 virus vaccine for a total of 3.037 billion doses as of February 11.
On February, the state health care Commission and the local health care administration jointly held a briefing on the important progress of the reform of medical consumables. In terms of quantity and variety, the number and variety of drugs and high-value consumables collected by local governments will increase in the future. This year, the number of drugs collected by provinces will reach at least 100, and there will be more than 5 high-value consumables. At the same time, the briefing made it clear that the reform of local centralized mining Alliance for dental implants is planned to be carried out in the first half of 2022. In the short term, dental implants may become the third important variety for centralized mining of consumables. In addition, the collection of Chinese patent medicine and biological products will also be expanded in an orderly manner this year. In terms of scope, the achievements of successful local centralized mining in the future will be expanded to the whole country. The promotion of centralized purchase policy will help enterprises with unique advantages in cost control and innovation to occupy the future market. On February 11, the State Food and Drug Administration conditionally approved the import registration of paxlovid, a covid-19 virus treatment drug of Pfizer. According to the research data released by Pfizer earlier, paxlovid reduced the risk of hospitalization / death by 89%. From the price purchased by the U.S. government, the price of a single course of paxlovid was $529. In its latest annual report, Pfizer estimated that covid-19 vaccine will continue to contribute US $32 billion in revenue in 2022, and covid-19 oral medicine is expected to reach US $22 billion. In the short to medium term, the global epidemic situation is still severe. With paxlovid approved for emergency listing in China, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of covid-19 small molecule drug industry chain, and pay attention to the listed companies deeply involved in covid-19 prevention and treatment drug supply chain, including Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) -u, Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) and Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) .
Based on the resonance of multiple factors such as the US interest rate increase and capital outflow, the rapid decline of the market has accumulated a certain margin of safety. With the confirmation of the end of economic policy and the arrival of a new round of stable growth cycle, we believe that the focus of market repair may continue to focus on sectors with marginal improvement and valuation repair logic. At the time point when valuation switching is gradually approaching, advance layout needs to pay particular attention to marginal improvement and sustainability of growth. From the perspective of valuation, the pharmaceutical industry is currently at a historical low valuation. The market has been worried that the suppression of the price segment by centralized purchase and medical insurance negotiation will change the growth attribute of the pharmaceutical industry. We believe that the logic of long-term and stable growth of the pharmaceutical industry remains unchanged when the demand is determined. In the long run, with the continuous promotion of the procurement of drugs and consumables, enterprises with high safety margin, strong innovation ability, rich product pipelines and good competition pattern are expected to continue to benefit in the long cycle. It is suggested to continue to focus on the layout of innovative drug industry chain, high-end medical devices, medical services and medical consumption, and tap the second-line blue chips with relatively low valuation:
1) innovative drugs and innovative drug industry chain, including comprehensive and specialized innovative drug enterprises and CXO industry. It is suggested to pay attention to Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) , boten pharmaceutical, Jiangsu Nhwa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002262) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) , Pharmaron Beijing Co.Ltd(300759) and Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) ;
2) it is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) and Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) for the leading high-end medical devices with outstanding import substitution ability;
3) for medical consumption terminals benefiting from the increased market concentration, it is recommended to pay attention to Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) and Dian Diagnostics Group Co.Ltd(300244) ;
4) biological products enterprises with scarcity and consumption attributes, including Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Hualan Biological Engineering Inc(002007) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) – U and Pacific Shuanglin Bio-Pharmacy Co.Ltd(000403) .
Risk tips: covid-19 epidemic fluctuation risk and market adjustment risk
