Market performance:
In the current period (2022.2.7-2022.2.11), the non bank (Shenwan) index was + 5.60%, ranking 9 / 31 in the industry, the brokerage II index was + 3.14%, and the insurance II index was + 11.13%;
Shanghai Composite Index + 3.02%, Shenzhen Component Index – 0.78%, gem index – 5.59%.
The top five stocks (+ 0.001%} 12.001%}, {0.001%} 14%) and {0.001%} 6} 6} 6 {06} 6} 6} 6 {6} 6} 6 {6} 6} 6 {6} 6} 6} 6 {6} 6} 6} 6} 6;
The rise and fall of individual stocks ranked among the top five: Shanghai Greencourt Investment Group Co.Ltd(600695) (- 22.68%), Shanghai Greencourt Investment Group Co.Ltd(600695) B (- 20.86%), Xishui Strong Year Co.Ltd Inner Mongolia(600291) (- 2.77%), Easy Visible Supply Chain Management Co.Ltd(600093) (- 2.51%), Anhui Xinli Finance Co.Ltd(600318) (- 2.41%).
Core view
Brokerage: in terms of the market, the securities sector rose by 3.14% this week, slightly better than the big market. The securities companies with the highest growth this week are still driven by performance, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) , Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) have announced performance express or performance forecast, with high certainty of upward performance. In addition, the expectation of loose liquidity also has a certain boost to the financial sector. The latest social finance data released by the central bank on Friday showed that the growth rate of social finance exceeded expectations, and the steady growth policy was verified, which boosted market confidence. At the same time, on February 11, the central bank issued the report on the implementation of China’s monetary policy in the fourth quarter of 2021. The general direction of basically stable growth remains unchanged. China’s monetary policy is expected to be further loosened, the real estate regulation policy is expected to be loosened, and the market liquidity is expected to be further abundant.
From the performance of the sector, wealth management is still the focus of securities companies. On February 10, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) increased its shareholding in China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) fund from 75% to 100%. Since then, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) fund has become a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company. According to the statistics of China Foundation Association, among the top 100 institutions in terms of public fund sales and holding scale of fund sales institutions in the fourth quarter of 2021, the holding scale of securities companies’ stock + mixed public fund reached 939.2 billion yuan, down 0.36% month on month, accounting for 14.54%, and the holding scale of non money market public fund reached 1015.7 billion yuan, up 0.75% month on month, accounting for 13.16%, down 0.77 PCT and 0.96 PCT respectively compared with the previous quarter. Among the four types of institutions, the market share of banks and securities companies has declined. The holding scale of the above two third-party institutions increased by 10.08% and 16.69% month on month respectively, and the market share increased by 1.23pct and 2.37pct respectively. Among securities companies, the top five securities companies are Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) , China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) . These five securities companies have ranked among the top five for two consecutive quarters, and the retention scale of CITIC, gf and China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) has declined month on month.
Since the main business of securities companies was to provide trading channels and places, compared with the customers of banks and third-party institutions, the customers of securities companies pay more attention to market changes and are more sensitive to the market. When the market is weak, the scale of wealth management of securities companies is relatively volatile. Although there are short-term disturbances, in the long run, with the expansion of the capital market and the gradual shift of residents’ wealth to the equity market, wealth management is still the key development direction of securities companies. At the same time, the public fund business with the rapid expansion of the scale of public fund subsidiaries held by securities companies is an important breakthrough in transformation. On the one hand, holding public fund subsidiaries by securities companies is conducive to promoting the development of financial business sold by securities companies on a commission basis, on the other hand, it can also be conducive to the research and development of financial products, expanding new businesses and promoting the transformation of wealth management.
It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the undervalued securities companies whose performance exceeds expectations and the securities companies with strong wealth management strength, such as Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , etc.
Insurance: the insurance sector rose 11.13% this week, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 30010.30pct, outperforming Shanghai Composite Index by 8.11pct. The share prices of Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) , New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) , China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) rose by 11.25%, 7.03%, 8.86%, 9.79% and 14.66% respectively. The insurance sector performed relatively well in the whole market this week.
We believe that there are two reasons:
First, the margin of real estate policy is loose. It is expected that the follow-up real estate risk is controllable, and the insurance asset side is expected to hit the bottom and rebound. Recently, relevant departments issued relevant opinions on the supervision of urban commercial housing pre-sale funds, making it clear that the remaining funds after the pre-sale funds reach the supervision limit can be withdrawn and used by real estate enterprises. This opinion corrects the past policies, which is conducive to easing the liquidity pressure of real estate enterprises. It is undoubtedly a good thing for the current pressure of centralized maturity of Chinese dollar bonds and the steep decline of China’s real estate transactions. Since 2021, the risks of the real estate market have been gradually exposed, and the policies have been continuously strengthened to boost market confidence, which has repaired the safety margin of the asset side of the insurance sector to a certain extent. However, at present, the risks of the real estate have not been cleared, the liquidity pressure is still obvious, and the recovery progress of the asset side of the insurance sector remains to be seen.
Second, the market style conversion, the current market preference undervalued, high dividend value stocks. In addition, the current valuation of the sector is relatively safe, which can be focused on.
In addition, in 2021, the growth rates of life insurance premiums of listed insurance companies were: China Taiping (3.0%), New China Life Insurance Company Ltd(601336) (2.5%), China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) (1.2%), The People’S Insurance Company (Group) Of China Limited(601319) (0.7%), {601601601} (0.6%), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (- 4.0%). The original premium income of property insurance of listed insurance companies were: PICC Property Insurance (3.8%), CPIC property insurance (3.4%), Taiping property insurance (2.1%), Ping An Property Insurance (- 5.5%), Based on the performance of the liability side of listed insurance companies in 2021, although the insurance sector performed well this week and the market sentiment improved, we believe that the industry has not yet ushered in a reversal point.
Risk tips: strengthened supervision, intensified external market risks, market fluctuations and repeated epidemics
