\u3000\u3000 China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) (001979)
Event: the company issued the operation announcement in January 2022. In January, the sales area was 705600 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 27.66%; The sales amount reached 15.147 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.47%.
Sales in the first month decreased year-on-year, and the average sales price increased month on month
The monthly sales amount of the company in January 2022 was 15.147 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.47%; The sales area was 705600 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 27.66%; The average sales price was 21466.84 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 14.95% compared with the average monthly sales price of 25239.9 yuan / m2 in January last year, an increase of 8.07% compared with the average sales price of 19863.33 yuan / m2 in December last year, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.81% compared with the cumulative average sales price of 22317.56 yuan / m2 last year. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, last year’s high base, the overall environment and other factors, the company’s monthly sales fell in double digits, but the average sales price increased month on month.
Replenishment is concentrated in East China, and the proportion of land acquisition in low-energy cities has increased
The company added three plots in January 2022. From the perspective of regional distribution, all three plots are located in East China; From the perspective of urban energy level, second tier cities: third tier cities = 1:2, and low-energy cities have strong replenishment efforts; Take 100% equity as the proportion of all equity. In January, the total area of newly added projects was 183500 square meters, with 491200 square meters of newly planned construction area. The newly added construction area in East China accounted for 100%, which is more concentrated than that in East China: South China: Southwest = 55.58%: 29.20%: 15.22% last month; The proportion of new construction area in second tier cities and third tier cities was 68.30% and 31.70% respectively. Compared with the first tier cities: second tier cities: third tier cities and below = 27.4%: 66.4%: 6.2% last month, the proportion of land acquisition in low-energy cities increased; In January, the equity land price was 2.437 billion yuan, and the total land price was 5.511 billion yuan. The corresponding equity ratio was 44.22%, which was lower than 53.96% in the previous month, mainly related to the increase in the proportion of cooperative land acquisition.
The land acquisition strength decreased in the month, and the floor price decreased compared with the previous month
Based on the equity land price, the land acquisition strength of the company in January 2022 was 16.09%, which decreased significantly compared with 40.68% in the previous month. From the perspective of floor price, the floor price of new projects in January 2022 was 11218.88 yuan / m2, a decrease of 19.44% compared with 13925.98/m2 in the previous month, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of replenishment in low-energy cities in the current month. The land sales ratio in January was 52.26%, with a difference of 17.85 PCT from 70.11% in the previous month, which is mainly related to the difference between the replenishment area and the sales area.
Investment suggestion: affected by the Spring Festival holiday, last year’s high base, the overall environment and other factors, the company’s sales in the first month decreased year-on-year, but the average sales price increased month on month. Considering the decline of the overall profit margin of the industry and the slowdown of settlement speed, we lowered the net profit of the company from RMB 13.130 billion and RMB 14.791 billion to RMB 12.947 billion and RMB 14.484 billion from 2021 to 2022, and the corresponding EPS was lowered from RMB 1.66/share and RMB 1.87/share to RMB 1.63/share and RMB 1.83/share, maintaining the “buy” rating
Risk tips: house prices fell sharply, sales fell short of expectations, and macroeconomic fell short of expectations
