\u3000\u3000 Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group Corporation Co.Ltd(600967) (600967)
Key investment points
Ordnance Group's net profit increased by 17.5% year-on-year in 2027
According to the report of the 2022 annual work conference of ordnance industry group, in 2021, ordnance industry group achieved a net profit of 17.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, an operating revenue of 526.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, and achieved a steady improvement in quality and a reasonable increase in quantity.
Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group Corporation Co.Ltd(600967) group: ensure that all indicators achieve a good start in the first quarter; We expect the first quarter report to be up
According to the report on the official website, Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group Corporation Co.Ltd(600967) group's first early investigation meeting in 2022, chairman and Party Secretary Li Wenwen clearly proposed that in order to maintain the good momentum of the company's sustained and steady development, we need to plan and take action as soon as possible, spare no effort to start and start, so as to ensure the successful completion of the "double half" in the first half of the year and the objectives and tasks of the whole year.
Li Wenwen stressed: I want to focus on the first quarter of the year, strive to ensure a good start in the first quarter, and welcome the victory of the 20th CPC National Congress with excellent results.
We expect that the company's performance in the first quarter is expected to accelerate. From 2018 to 2020, the year-on-year growth rate of the company's revenue was 2.5% / 3.4% / 4.4% respectively, while the year-on-year growth rate of revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 increased to 10.7%, of which the growth rate of revenue in the third quarter reached 29.4%. At the end of the third quarter of 2021, the company's contract liabilities were 9.8 billion yuan. We judged that the company's orders were full and the performance in the first quarter was expected to speed up.
Previously, the performance evaluation conditions for the unlocking of restricted shares of the company clearly proposed that the net profit CAGR in 2021 / 2022 / 2023 should not be less than 10% and not lower than the average value of the same industry based on 2019. According to wind's unanimous expectation, the compound growth rate of net profit of "railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment" in the CSRC industry in 2021 and 2022 compared with 2019 will be 11% and 12%.
The army is the leader in equipment, and foreign trade is expected to grow rapidly, promoting the acceleration of performance
The company is the only main battle tank and medium and heavy wheeled armored vehicle company in China. It will continue to benefit from China's demand for maintaining a strong army and the replacement of new equipment, as well as the substantial growth of foreign trade demand.
Underestimated value and high margin of safety: the national defense main engine factory with nearly 11 billion yuan of cash on account and the lowest PE valuation
High margin of safety: there is a lot of cash on the account, and the valuation level is significantly lower than that of national defense complete machine enterprises. The PE valuation of the company is 1 / 3 of the four national defense complete machines ( Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) ).
Investment suggestion: it is expected that the performance from 2021 to 2023 will meet the growth rate of 18%, and continue to be recommended
The company has designated 2021 as "the year of benchmarking world-class management improvement", and has long been committed to building a "world-class special vehicle R & D and manufacturing group with global competitiveness". It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 760 / 9.1 / 1.09 billion respectively, with a compound growth rate of 18% and PE of 23 / 20 / 16 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips:
Export demand and delivery rhythm were lower than expected, and the loading of new tanks and armored vehicles was lower than expected.
