Event: on February 10, the central bank released social finance and financial data for January. At the end of January, the stock of social finance was 320.05 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5% (the growth rate increased by 0.2pct month on month). In January, social finance increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of January, M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.8pct month on month; M1 decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 5.4pct month on month. Our comments are as follows:
The growth rate of social finance continued to pick up, and the credit supply in a single month hit a record high. At the end of January, the stock of social finance increased by 10.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate continued to rise. In January, social finance increased by 6.17 trillion, an increase of 984.2 billion year-on-year; The main contribution comes from credit, corporate bonds and government bonds. RMB loans increased by 4.2 trillion, an increase of 380.6 billion year-on-year, a record high. Reflecting the strength of the steady growth policy, banks actively increased credit. Corporate bonds increased by 579.9 billion, an increase of 188.2 billion year-on-year. The issuance of government bonds remained relatively fast, with an increase of 602.6 billion in a single month, an increase of 358.9 billion year-on-year. In terms of off balance sheet financing, entrusted loans increased by 42.8 billion, trust loans decreased by 68 billion, and undiscounted silver notes increased by 473.1 billion.
In January, the credit supply structure was optimized, and the proportion of new medium and long-term corporate loans rebounded. At the end of January, the balance of RMB loans increased by 11.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 1bp month on month. In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion, an increase of 394.4 billion year-on-year. Among them, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises and residents accounted for 71.4% of the new loans, the proportion of medium and long-term loans increased month on month, and the new credit structure was optimized; But still lower than the same period last year (83.4%).
(1) in terms of enterprise loans: infrastructure recovery, marginal relaxation of housing related loans, and strong growth of medium and long-term corporate loans. In January, corporate loans increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 810 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, medium and long-term loans increased by 2.1 trillion, a record high, an increase of 60 billion year-on-year; The proportion of new loans in the current month was 53%, an increase of 23pct compared with December 2021. It is expected that supporting loans for infrastructure projects, medium and long-term loans for manufacturing industry, affordable housing construction loans and other policy support areas will achieve rapid growth. Short term loans increased by 1.01 trillion, an increase of 434.5 billion year-on-year; Bill financing increased by 178.8 billion, an increase of 319.3 billion year-on-year. Overall, the growth of medium and long-term corporate loans in January was strong, reflecting the steady growth force dominated by infrastructure. In addition, on February 8, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the notice on excluding the loans related to affordable rental housing from the concentration management of real estate loans, which made it clear that the loans related to affordable rental housing projects were not included in the concentration management of real estate loans, which helped banks to expand the general real estate credit line, Increase credit for affordable rental housing projects and ordinary real estate projects. Credit growth in the first quarter may be supported by infrastructure and real estate investment.
(2) residents’ Loans: the improvement of real estate sales drives the demand for mortgage loans, and the growth of residents’ medium and long-term loans has improved month on month. In January, resident loans increased by 843 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 427 billion. Among them, residents’ medium and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 227.2 billion and a month on month increase of 386.6 billion. Reflecting the interest rate cut in January and the loosening of sales policies in some regions, the investment of real estate sales and personal mortgage loans is gradually recovering. From the current real estate financial policy, the policy encourages banks to meet the reasonable housing needs of residents, and the supply of bank mortgage loans shows a warming trend; Follow up mortgage loan growth needs to continue to pay attention to policy changes and the recovery of residents’ demand side.
M2 growth rate improved month on month, and M1 fell sharply year-on-year due to the Spring Festival. At the end of January, M2 increased by 9.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 0.8pct month on month. M1 decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 5.4pct compared with December 2021. This is mainly due to the phenomenon of centralized payment of bonuses and wages on the eve of the Spring Festival, and the migration of public demand deposits to residents’ savings deposits; In January, household deposits increased by 5.41 trillion, an increase of 3.93 trillion year-on-year; Corporate deposits increased by 1.4 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.35 trillion. Fiscal deposits increased by 584.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of – 585.1 billion; Or it is related to the accelerated commencement and implementation of infrastructure projects and the development of local financial expenditure.
Investment suggestion: select high growth tracks, high-quality banks with first mover advantage and good regional growth. At present, the “steady growth policy force + correction of real estate regulation policy + deterministic and stable performance” jointly catalyzes the market of the sector. It is recommended to select banks with first mover advantages in the field of wealth management, such as customer base, sales channels and product service system ( China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) ), and high-quality banks with location advantages and market-oriented system and mechanism ( Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) ).
Risk tip: the economy stalled and went down, and the real estate regulation policies and regulatory policies changed unexpectedly.
