The increment of enterprise credit is much higher than expected, and the growth rate of government bond issuance is not reduced, which shows the determination of policy to support the economy, and can boost market confidence to a certain extent. It is expected that the focus of the market will probably shift from the fact that credit exceeds expectations to the sustainability of credit growth.
From a fundamental point of view, in the first quarter, corporate credit was invested intensively, while the loan increased rapidly, the non-performing rate decreased and the operation improved. From the perspective of certainty, we still believe that personal loans, consumer loans and wealth management are the gold portfolio of banks. We recommend Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) .
Stock: the stock of social finance increased by 10.5% year-on-year
At the end of January, the stock of social financing scale was 320.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% (the previous value was 10.3%). Among them, RMB loans (11.6% year-on-year, former value 11.6%), undiscounted bills (12.9% year-on-year, former value – 14%), trust loans (31.9% year-on-year, former value – 31.3%) and government bonds (15.9% year-on-year, former value 15.2%).
In January, the increment of social financing scale was 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan over the same period of last year and 1116.5 billion yuan over the same period of 2020. Among them, the net financing of corporate bonds was 579.9 billion yuan, an increase of 333.3 billion yuan month on month and 188.2 billion yuan year-on-year. The net financing of government bonds was 602.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 564.9 billion yuan month on month and an increase of 358.9 billion yuan year on year.
Increment: RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan
In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year.
Among them, household loans increased by 843 billion yuan, a month on month increase of 471.4 billion yuan and a year-on-year decrease of 427 billion yuan. Among them, the increment of short-term household loans was 100.6 billion yuan, an increase of 84.9 billion yuan month on month and a decrease of 227.2 billion yuan year on year. The increment of medium and long-term household loans was 742.4 billion yuan, an increase of 386.6 billion yuan month on month and a decrease of 202.4 billion yuan year on year.
Corporate loans increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.7 trillion yuan month on month and 810 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, short-term corporate loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.12 trillion yuan month on month and 434.5 billion yuan year-on-year. The increment of medium and long-term corporate loans was 2.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.76 trillion yuan month on month and 60 billion yuan year-on-year. Bill financing increased by 178.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 229.9 billion yuan month on month and an increase of 319.3 billion yuan year on year.
Loans from non bank financial institutions decreased by 141.7 billion yuan, an increase of 1970 billion yuan month on month and a decrease of 57.5 billion yuan year-on-year.
Currency: the year-on-year growth rate of M1 decreased, and the year-on-year growth rate of M2 continued to rise
At the end of January, the balance of M2 was 243.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, 0.8 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and 0.4 percentage points higher than that in the same period of last year; The balance of M1 was 61.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, an increase of about 2% after excluding the influence of the wrong timing of the Spring Festival, a decrease of 12.7 percentage points over the same period last year.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic contraction exceeded expectations.
