Event: the people’s Bank of China disclosed the financial data of January 2022. In January, the new credit increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year; Social finance increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. Our comments are as follows:
\u3000\u30001. Demand differentiation, supply driven credit supply accelerated. The highlights of the credit data in January are reflected in two dimensions: ① the total amount of credit has improved significantly, reversing the decline in November and December last year, mainly because the short-term loans and bill financing of enterprises have increased significantly year-on-year. Under the guidance of the policy of encouraging banks to speed up credit supply and avoid credit collapse, there are signs of acceleration of credit supply in mid and late January.
② the medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 60 billion yuan year-on-year, which improved for the first time since June last year. On the one hand, the project loans reserved in December last year were released in January this year; On the other hand, in the middle and late January, large-scale projects around the country started one after another, special bond funds were put into use, and the credit demand leveraging supporting facilities recovered.
The demand of residents is relatively weak. Among them, short-term loans decreased by 227.2 billion yuan year-on-year, which has continued to perform poorly since April last year, which is consistent with the current weak consumption environment; Long term loans decreased by 202.4 billion yuan year-on-year, which has a certain relationship with the improvement of commercial housing sales. Last year, the impact of strict supervision on real estate and other fields has been gradually transmitted from the enterprise side to the residents. In the future, it is necessary to further observe the progress of some residents’ needs caused by policy adjustments such as real estate.
\u3000\u30002. The growth rate of social finance continued to pick up and credit expansion accelerated. In addition to the improvement of the total amount of credit, the increase in the issuance of corporate bonds and the advance in the rhythm of government bond issuance under the low interest rate environment jointly drove the social finance to increase by 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year, and the growth rate of social finance also rebounded to 10.5%, further accelerating the credit expansion.
The growth rate of social finance is expected to fluctuate upward in the future. Factors supporting credit expansion include: ① pre issuance of government bonds in the first half of the year; ② At the end of last year, the transition period of new regulations on asset management ended, and the downward pressure on off balance sheet financing has eased this year; ③ The real estate policy continues to correct the deviation, and the financing of mortgage and real estate enterprises is expected to return to normal.
In the coming months, we believe that as the steady growth policy enters the intensive landing stage and the real estate policy is gradually relaxed, the opportunities are still far greater than the risks for the banking sector.
Individual stocks can be selected along two ideas: first, the valuation is low β Strong attributes, benefiting from the implementation of stable growth policies, and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) are mainly recommended; Second, have α Excellent logic and fundamentals, outstanding business model, and Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) are recommended.
Risk tip: accelerated risk exposure of the real estate industry
