Key investment points
Social finance forecast in 2022: the annual new social finance is expected to be 33.3 trillion, an increase of 2 trillion over 21 years. Among them: 1. The annual new loans are expected to be 20.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 660 billion yuan over the same period in previous years. 2. Government bonds are expected to increase by 8 trillion, an increase of 980 billion over the same period last year. Finally, it is estimated that the new social finance in 22 years is expected to be 33.3 trillion, an increase of 2 trillion over 21 years, and the year-on-year growth rate of stock is 10.5%. In the past 22 years, social finance was in the stage of bottoming out and stabilizing.
In the same period, the newly added volume of social finance market was about 1.985 trillion, which exceeded the expectation of the previous year, and the new volume of social finance market was about 1.985 trillion. The year-on-year growth rate of stock social finance continued to rise, with a year-on-year increase of 10.46%, up 0.17 percentage points from December. Structural analysis: on the whole, social finance in January was mainly supported by infrastructure. Government bonds + corporate bonds supported social finance by an additional 547.1 billion, most of which were issued by urban investment enterprises. The net increase in medium and long-term loans of credit enterprises was slightly higher than that in the same period last year, which was also caused by the pre force of infrastructure construction. Credit situation in January: the total growth greatly exceeded market expectations, and short-term loans + bills had an impulse. A hard target task that reflects steady growth. Combined with our recent industrial chain research, banks generally said that the annual new credit target will be roughly the same as or slightly higher than that in 21 years; Infrastructure, green finance and high-end manufacturing are the main project reserves. 1. On balance sheet credit. In January, new credit increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 381.8 billion yuan over the same period in previous years. 2. Off balance sheet credit. At the beginning of the year, the scale of bank Invoicing increased, and the net financing scale of new undiscounted bank acceptance bills off the balance sheet increased month on month, close to the level of the same period last year. In January, undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by – 473.1 billion yuan, down 17.1 billion yuan from the same period in previous years.
3. Under the background that the trust supervision has not been relaxed, the pressure of new trusts continues to drop. 1. In January, the new trust scale was – 68 billion, a slight increase of 16.2 billion over the same period last year. 2. The newly increased entrusted loan scale turned positive, + 42.8 billion yuan, an increase of 33.7 billion over the same period last year. With most banks in the late stage of disposal in meeting the new asset management regulations, it is expected that the contraction of new trusts and entrusted loans in 22 years will be better than that in 21 years. 4. The government debt is the front force and the bottom support. In January, government bonds increased by 602.6 billion, an increase of 358.9 billion over the same period last year. 5. Infrastructure development, urban investment enterprises as the main force of bond issuance. New corporate bond financing was 579.9 billion yuan, an increase of 188.2 billion yuan over the same period last year. 6. The scale of stock financing remained high.
In January, the new credit scale was expected to reach a one month high: the new loan was 3.98 trillion yuan, the market expected 3.77 trillion yuan, and the new scale increased by 400 billion yuan over the same period last year. The credit balance increased by 11.5 points year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points month on month. Structural analysis: capital construction is the main support, and real estate is still weak; The pace of bank investment is more advanced. 1. Resident loans. Residential mortgages were weaker than in the same period last year. On the one hand, the real estate boom rose last year, bringing a higher base. On the other hand, the real estate sales data is weak, and the actual demand is relatively weak. In January, the net increase in residential mortgage loans was 742.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 202.4 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. The net increase of consumer loans is expected to be lower than that in the same period last year due to repeated outbreaks and real estate drag. In January, the net increase in short-term loans for residents was 100.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 227.2 billion yuan compared with the same period last year. 2. Enterprise loans. The medium and long-term scale growth of enterprises is not weak, and it is expected that the pace of bank investment will be more advanced; Capital construction is expected to be the main force. In January, medium and long-term loans to enterprises increased by 2.1 trillion, an increase of 60 billion over the same period last year. In the same period last year, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises were not weak, and there was still a slight increase on the basis of high base this year, which is expected to be mainly due to the more advanced pace of bank investment. Combined with the investigation of industrial chain, banks generally reflect that 1) the goal of steady growth is to support the economy in the first quarter, especially in January. 2) It is expected that the interest rate center of follow-up loans will continue to move down and put in early to lock in income. Due to the significant decline of resident credit compared with the same period last year, banks use enterprise short loan + bill impulse to complete the task of credit extension. In January, the net financing of enterprise short-term loans and bills was 1 trillion yuan and + 178.8 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of + 434.5 billion yuan and + 319.3 billion yuan compared with the same period last year.
The year-on-year growth rate difference of m2-m1 rose to a high level, and the activation degree of enterprise funds was low: the year-on-year growth rate of M2 rebounded; The year-on-year growth rate of M1 fell to a low level. The year-on-year growth rate of M1 decreased due to the dislocation of the Spring Festival and the low willingness of enterprises to put into operation. 1. The Spring Festival is misplaced, and enterprise deposits are transferred to residents’ deposits. 2. The degree of capital activation of enterprises is low, and the fixed deposit increases rapidly. Excluding the dislocation factors of the Spring Festival, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 is only 2%, which is still low, mainly due to the low activation of enterprise funds and more conversion to time deposits. 3. M1 growth rate is more related to real estate sales. It is expected that M1 growth rate will rise slightly as the financing margin of real estate enterprises recovers; One of the sustainability of the rise is to track the reconstruction of the virtuous cycle of the real estate chain; The other is the recovery of subsequent business operations as the structural monetary policy and loose policies such as RRR reduction slow down the business pressure. In January, M0, M1 and M2 increased by 18.5%, – 1.9% and 9.8% respectively year-on-year, with changes of + 10.8, – 5.4 and + 0.8 percentage points compared with the same period last month.
Investment suggestion: at present, the safety margin of the sector is relatively high, and the asset quality constructs the safety margin of bank shares. 1. The core investment logic of bank stocks is macroeconomic. For details, see our relevant in-depth report “how do bank stocks perform when prices rise? – summary and comparison of multiple rounds of performance of bank stocks in China and the United States”. We expect that the asset quality of listed banks will be stable in the next few years, which will build the safety margin of bank shares. 2. Banks have two main lines of stock selection. One is our long-term proposal to continue to embrace the core assets of banks: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) . Their performance is highly sustainable and scarce. The boom of high-quality banks is certain and long-term. First, these scarce high-quality banks have “market-oriented genes” and “run to make money” in the industry of “lying down to make money”; Therefore, in the era of banking differentiation, their growth can be valued sustainably. Second, these banks occupy the sunrise track of the financial industry: wealth management and retail; Our in-depth report estimates that the growth rate of wealth management profits in the next decade will be 21% (see detailed calculation of income, profit and market value of “wealth management industry”: the golden track with a market value of 10 trillion). The other is to choose banks with undervalued value, safe asset quality and expected successful transformation, and be optimistic about Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) and Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) .
Risk warning event: the economic downturn exceeded expectations.
