The sales decline of the top 100 continued to widen in the first month. According to the sales performance of the top 100 real estate enterprises in January 2022 released by Kerui, the full caliber sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises in January reached 584.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.7%, the cumulative growth rate decreased by 37.5 percentage points compared with the whole year of 2021, and the monthly growth rate decreased by 4.7 percentage points compared with December 2021. At present, many governments have successively issued loose policies to guide house purchase consumption from reducing the proportion of provident fund loans, relaxing pre-sale funds and encouraging house purchase. We expect that under the framework of urban implementation, the policy side will maintain a marginal improvement trend, and the subsequent industry fundamentals are expected to return to the Soviet Union.
The growth rate of each echelon and the entry threshold decreased significantly. In terms of different echelons, the cumulative sales growth of top 10, top 11-20, top 21-50 and top 51-100 real estate enterprises in January was – 41.9%, – 39.7%, – 38.3% and – 42.8% respectively. All echelons showed weakness. In terms of market concentration, we selected the annual Top 100 equity sales in 2021 and the national commercial housing sales announced by the National Bureau of statistics. The market share of top5, TOP10, top20, Top50 and Top100 were 12.8%, 19.7%, 28.5%, 42.7% and 51.2% respectively, down 2.5%, 3%, 3.3%, 4.1% and 5.6% respectively compared with the end of 2020. The industry concentration showed a downward trend.
The monthly sales growth of brand real estate enterprises turned negative. Among the real estate enterprises that focus on the year-on-year growth rate of full caliber sales in January, those with a smaller decline are country garden (- 11.1%), Greentown China (- 20.5%), rongchuang China (- 20.6%), Greenland Holdings Corporation Limited(600606) (- 25.4%) and Risesun Real Estate Development Co.Ltd(002146) (- 26.9%). Focus on the negative growth of real estate enterprises in January. Shimao Group, Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) and China Olympic Park decreased by more than 60% year-on-year, and Vanke, China Jinmao and Yango Group Co.Ltd(000671) decreased by more than 50%.
During the empty window period of land supply, the land acquisition strength of brand real estate enterprises is weak. In the first month of 2022, the new land value was 275.67 billion yuan, with a growth rate of – 56.1%, an increase of 32 percentage points over the whole year of 2021. In the first month of 2022, only 10 of the top 100 real estate enterprises had land recorded, of which the amount of land acquired by Greentown and China Resources exceeded 5 billion yuan. Local real estate enterprises and urban investment companies are still the main force for investment and land acquisition, and the decline of top 100 real estate enterprises on the investment side continues to expand. On the land demand side, the market wait-and-see sentiment is still superimposed, the capital chain is tight, and the investment willingness of real estate enterprises is still weak. The land supply side was in the empty window period of centralized land supply in January, which also led to the decline of land transaction scale.
The marginal policy of multi city is loose, and the upward space of the sector can be expected. At present, the valuation center of the industry has been repaired. At this stage, the rebound logic of the sector is still mainly based on the expectation of policy relaxation. Under the background of stable growth, we believe that the release of policies will be strengthened step by step. It does not rule out that non hot cities will break the shackles of excessive regulation in the past, and the subsequent industry fundamentals are expected to usher in recovery with the gradual improvement of policies. In the future, with the reconstruction of the industry pattern and development mode, the operation and management efficiency and credit acquisition ability of real estate enterprises will be the key factors in the medium and long term. The accelerated clearing within the industry means the emergence of opportunities to improve the concentration. Under the improvement expectation, real estate stocks have always had the characteristics of significant excess returns. It is recommended that China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Poly Real estate, Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , and China overseas development.
Risk tip: the re outbreak of the epidemic has an impact on economic expectations, the regulation policies of the real estate industry have been tightened more than expected, the real estate sales and settlement have been significantly lower than expected, and the house price has fallen more than expected.
