The box office of the Spring Festival in 2022 is full. From the 30th day of the lunar new year to the sixth day of the Lunar New Year (January 31 to February 6), the total box office was 6.039 billion yuan (including service fees), a year-on-year decrease of 23.00%; The number of film viewers was 115 million, a year-on-year decrease of 28.13%; The overall box office scale is basically consistent with the expected market scale of 6 billion, which is basically the same as the overall box office in 2018 and 2019 before the epidemic.
The rise of ticket prices and the quality and popularity of films have become the key factors affecting the box office and movie attendance. The average ticket price of the Spring Festival in 2022 is 52.70 yuan, an increase of 7.99% over 2021. The ticket price has been adjusted after the first day of junior high school. This year’s blockbuster films are also less popular than last year. Bona pictures, China Film Co.Ltd(600977) and other productions of “shuimen bridge of Changjin Lake” and “this killer is not too calm” produced by Xinli, Kaixin Mahua, cat’s eye and Yuewen have become the top and second place at the box office of the Spring Festival. As of the sixth day of the lunar new year, the box office has reached 2.721 billion yuan and 1.531 billion yuan, and the final predicted box office has reached 3.909 billion yuan and 2.413 billion yuan respectively, It is far less popular than last year’s “Hello, Li Huanying” and “Chinatown detective 3”. Driven by the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics, the box office of Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) produced by director Zhang Yimou is expected to increase from 430 million to 538 million.
The market concentration of head cinema was further improved. In 2022, the top 10 cinemas of the spring festival ticket room achieved a total box office of 4.014 billion yuan including service fees, with a total market share of 66.47%, which is higher than 65.61% of the spring festival ticket in 2021. At present, the market share of Wanda cinema, the industry-leading cinema, increased by 1.6% year-on-year.
Focus on Chinese Blockbusters to be launched and the introduction of imported blockbusters in 2022. As of February 10, the total number of tickets issued for the three films on Valentine’s day has reached 462000. The films “Spider Man 3”, “ace agent: Origin” and “happy voice 2” released overseas in the second half of 2021 have made brilliant achievements. The films that have been rated overseas in 2022 include Marvel series films “Thor 4”, “Panther 2” and “Doctor Strange 2”. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the introduction rhythm of overseas films rated in the second half of 2021 and 2022.
Investment suggestion: the impact of the epidemic in the film sector since two years ago still exists, and the supply of imported films is also unstable, resulting in the depression of the market. We continue to pay attention, Hong Kong stocks [cat’s eye entertainment] (online ticketing leader, participated in the Spring Festival, mainly issued the little dark horse “this killer is not too calm”, mainly produced the double explosion of “great dad” and “fame and millions” in 21 years, and many independent products such as “genius game” have been waiting to be released in 22 years, with low current valuation) A-share [ Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) ] (content and distribution leader, 22 year Spring Festival file “sniper”, Valentine’s Day “one product in ten years, such as Wen Ruyan”, followed by animated film “deep sea” and other films planned to be released), [ Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) ] (channel leader, 22 year Spring Festival file participated in “miracle: stupid child”, as well as “want to see you” and “sky star skill of ghost blowing lamp” with rich reserves).
Risk factors: the film quality is lower than expected; The introduction of overseas blockbusters is less than expected; The epidemic has led to fluctuations in the box office.
