Many factors such as epidemic situation and negative feedback of channel have been superimposed, leading to the recent Baijiu callback. Baijiu is our most promising industry at present. Consumption shows strong resilience. The recent callback brings good opportunities.
Main points
Many factors such as epidemic situation and negative feedback of channel have been superimposed, leading to the recent Baijiu callback. Since January 1st, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has dropped 6.1%, and the Baijiu index has dropped by 10.6%, and the food and beverage has dropped 9.8%. In December, 21 years, the price of Moutai was expected to fall, and the consumption tax adjustment was expected to be affected. In January, the Baijiu liquor had a two month effect of callback due to the spread of the epidemic and the poor feedback from the channel.
The main reason for the 22 year's continuous withdrawal of Baijiu is the spread of the epidemic across the country, but we think the actual impact is not large. (1) the impact of the outbreak on Baijiu demand has been weakening in the past two years. As long as there is no nationwide closure of the Spring Festival in 2020, the local epidemic has little impact on the overall demand, and Baijiu demand shows strong resilience. Dealers and consumers have adapted to the consumption scenario under the epidemic. Banquet and business needs can be supplemented after the epidemic is over, or transferred by gift. (2) From one month before the Spring Festival in 2022 to now, there are more than 2600 confirmed cases and more than 1700 cases in the same period in 21 years. Therefore, the same period last year was also impacted by the epidemic, and the base number is not high. (3) The impact of the epidemic on different regions is different. The demand of Henan, Tianjin, Beijing and other places is affected to some extent, and the consumption scene in other regions is relatively normal.
The feedback from some channels before the Spring Festival was negative, which caused the market to worry about the dynamic sales of the Spring Festival. We judge that there are two main reasons: (1) the channel expansion of famous wineries leads to the diversion of the demand of existing dealers, including increasing the number of dealers and introducing new channels. In the past three years, the financial report data of wine enterprises often deviated from the market research data. (2) Due to convenient logistics, consumers can buy wine at any time, so there is no need to prepare goods in advance before the Spring Festival. Traditional dealers can't feel the strong pre Festival stock market. We judge that the overall data of the Spring Festival is expected to be better than the dealers' feedback before the festival if the consumption from the first day to the 15th day of the first day of the Lunar New Year is added.
There is no need to worry too much about the impact of the epidemic and the negative feedback from pre Festival channels. The first quarterly report is worth looking forward to. (1) On the whole, the demand for Spring Festival is growing steadily, and the concentration of famous wines remains unchanged. (2) There are signs that the sauce wine fever has subsided, which is conducive to the growth of sub high-end fragrance and Luzhou flavor famous wines. (3) Judging from the companies that have disclosed the performance forecast, some companies controlled the goods in the fourth quarter and set aside surplus grain for 2022. (4) the performance of Baijiu listed companies in the 1 quarter is worth looking forward to, and the high-end liquor (Mao Wulu) is expected to maintain steady growth and increase revenue by 10-20%. The national expansion of the secondary high-end (Fenyang Water Ghost) maintains the trend of national expansion, with the growth rate in the range of 20-50%. Jiangsu and Anhui local wine (ancient and modern) increased by more than 20%.
Baijiu is our most promising industry at present. Consumption shows strong resilience. The recent callback brings good opportunities. (1) looking forward to 2022, we think that Baijiu is still the best sub sector of growth certainty, and the 1 quarterly performance is worth looking forward to. (2) Although the price increase expectation of pumao failed before the year, judging from the rhythm of making models and key new products, there is still a high probability of price increase in pumao in 2022. (3) Baijiu consumption shows strong resilience, especially high-end liquor, due to the change of income structure, ratchet effect and concentration of Baijiu. Baijiu focuses on deterministic growth varieties and improved undervalued varieties, including Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) and Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) .
Risk tips
Channel inventory exceeded expectations. Impact of economic downturn
