Events
On February 10, 2022, US CPI data were released. According to the statistics of the U.S. Department of labor, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the United States in January 2022 was 7.5%, the highest level since March 1982, higher than the expected value of 7.3% and the previous value of 7.0%; The month on month growth rate was 0.6%, expected to be 0.4%, and the previous value was 0.5%.
Comments
The year-on-year growth rate of CPI in the United States reached the highest level in nearly 40 years, and the energy index contributed most. From the year-on-year data, the CPI of the United States increased by 7.5% year-on-year in January 2022, the highest level since August 1982. Among them, the bulk energy products index and the second-hand car index contributed significantly throughout the year. The bulk energy products index rose 39.9% year-on-year in January 2022, and the second-hand car index rose 40.5% year-on-year in January 2022. From the month on month data, the energy and food index made a great contribution in January 2022. Among them, the food index increased by 0.9% month on month. The energy index maintained a month on month growth of 0.9% while the bulk energy product index of the sub project decreased month on month.
Global inflation is high and the price of gold is stronger. Gold prices fluctuated sharply before and after the US CPI data was released in January. Among them, the current price of London gold exceeded US $1840 / ounce for the first time in nearly two weeks, with a maximum of US $1842 / ounce; COMEX gold futures also showed the same trend, breaking through US $1840 / ounce and reaching US $1843 / ounce at the highest.
In the medium and long term, gold has excellent anti inflation properties, and a higher inflation level will drive the gold price upward. According to the statistics of the World Gold Council, the nominal return of gold in the market environment of low inflation (the year-on-year growth rate of us CPI is less than or equal to 3%) is about 6.38%, while in the market environment of high inflation (the year-on-year growth rate of us CPI is greater than 3%), the nominal return of gold is about 15.35%. Gold not only has certain benefits under different inflation conditions, but its benefits are more obvious under high inflation conditions. The anti inflation attribute of gold is still excellent. Therefore, in the medium and long term, gold prices are expected to rise further against the background of continued high inflation in the United States.
Overseas outbreaks and geopolitical conflicts intensified, economic uncertainty increased, and gold prices were supported. Judging from the current covid-19 epidemic situation, the global spread of Omicron virus is making the number of new infections in the world experience the fourth wave of outbreak. By February 9, 2022, the number of newly confirmed cases in the world had reached 2.3097 million, and the cumulative number of confirmed cases had reached 403 million. In the context of the continuous spread of the global epidemic, the uncertainty of the future economic situation still exists. On the other hand, the continuous emergence of geopolitical conflicts such as the Ukrainian issue has exacerbated the volatility of the global market. On January 26, 2022, the VIX closed at 31.96, and the market volatility reached a new high in nearly a year. As of February 9, 2022, the average value of VIX Index in 2022 is about 22.94 points, higher than 19.67 points in 2021, and the overall market volatility is still relatively high. As a result, global economic uncertainty has increased and gold prices are poised.
Investment advice
Under the high operation of gold price, relevant gold production enterprises may benefit, such as: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) .
Risk tips
International geopolitical changes, abnormal fluctuations in commodity prices and changes in macroeconomic policies.
