The increment of social finance exceeded expectations and exceeded 6 trillion yuan
In January, social finance increased by 6.17 trillion yuan (the expected average value of wind is 5.4 trillion yuan), an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year. The stock of social finance was 320.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, an increase of 0.2pct over the previous month. The year-on-year increase in social finance in January was mainly driven by the year-on-year increase of 810 billion yuan in loans from non-financial enterprises and government organizations, 358.9 billion yuan in government bonds, and 427 billion yuan in loans from residents. The medium and long-term loans of enterprises became positive for the first time after a year-on-year decrease for six consecutive months, indicating that the financing demand of enterprises has warmed up to a certain extent.
Enterprise short-term loans increased year-on-year, and medium and long-term loans ushered in repair
In January, RMB loans to the real economy increased by 4.2 trillion yuan (wind predicted an average of 3.8 trillion yuan). In January, RMB loans increased by 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year, which was mainly driven by the year-on-year increase of 434.5 billion yuan and 319.3 billion yuan in enterprise short-term loans and enterprise bill financing respectively, the year-on-year increase of 60 billion yuan in enterprise medium and long-term loans, and the year-on-year decrease of 427 billion yuan in residential loans.
On the enterprise side, although the short-term loans of enterprises are the main source of the year-on-year increase of credit, reflecting the weak demand for entity loans, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises also increased year-on-year for the first time after six consecutive months of year-on-year decrease. After the beginning of the year, on the one hand, the infrastructure has made efforts to pry the relevant medium and long-term loans. On the other hand, the banks have accelerated the release of reserve projects and promoted the total amount of loans to rise. In addition to infrastructure, the correction of real estate policies will enrich the bank’s loan projects. In January, the people’s Bank of China has issued measures to encourage real estate M & A loans. In February, the policy continued to deepen, and two documents, the notice on excluding the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing from the management of real estate loan concentration and the national measures for the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing, were issued to clarify the signal of classified supervision of real estate. Blocking the side door and opening the front door in the real estate field is conducive to stimulating the growth of medium and long-term loans and optimizing the loan structure.
On the residential side, loans to households decreased by 427 billion yuan year-on-year, an increase of 235.1 billion yuan over the previous month, reflecting the weak demand for residential housing loans. On January 30, the transaction area of commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities was 12.35 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 29.6%, an increase of 7 percentage points over the previous month. In January, the year-on-year growth rate of Baicheng housing price index was 2.06%, 0.38 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. The double drop in real estate transaction volume and price reflects the relative shortage of residents’ demand for house purchase.
The rhythm of local bond issuance is ahead, and the financial force is faster and earlier
In January, direct financing increased by 1.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 591.9 billion yuan year-on-year, of which government bonds increased by 358.9 billion yuan year-on-year, corporate bond financing increased by 188.2 billion yuan year-on-year, and domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises increased by 44.8 billion yuan year-on-year. The year-on-year increase in government bonds was mainly driven by local government bonds. In January, the new net financing amount of local government bonds was 670.1 billion yuan, an increase of 324.5 billion yuan year-on-year. In terms of rhythm, the issuance of local government bonds in January reached 8.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.82 trillion yuan year-on-year. The issuance rhythm is ahead, reflecting the increase of financial support. On February 9, the supervision required local governments to report the special debt projects related to infrastructure construction. Next, local bonds and supporting medium and long-term loans are expected to continue to support the growth of social finance.
Investment advice
We should look at the fact that the growth of medium and long-term loans is slow. In the early stage of credit easing, there is no need to be overly demanding, and the structure should also be improved. The shortage of bank assets is within the market expectation, and the unexpected is the policy attitude. The increase in social finance and the jump in growth rate in January reflect that the government is taking various measures to relax the credit line and start infrastructure projects in order to achieve credit expansion. The demand for stable growth through policies is strong. In January, social finance can basically end the dispute over whether credit can be extended in the first quarter. For the banking sector, first of all, the fundamentals are often “one quarter for the whole year”. The implementation of wide credit in the first quarter helps to realize the early release and early return of loans. Even if the credit is tightened later, it will have little impact on banks. Secondly, the active correction of real estate and credit policies means that the overall credit risk of banks will be within the tolerance range of supervision, and there will be no large amount of risk exposure. Third, high-quality banks with asset delivery channels are expected to benefit most from this round of credit easing. Individual stock recommendations Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(600908) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) .
Risk warning: the economic downturn exceeded expectations; The introduction of policies is less than expected; Credit risk fluctuation
