Based on the increased expectation of policy support for the overall consumption sector, wine tourism catering ushered in layout opportunities. At present, the relaxation trend of epidemic situation outside China is continuously verified, such as opening the country and trying to resume direct flights.
1) in the afternoon of February 7, the Prime Minister of Australia announced that Australia would reopen its international border to the remaining visa holders on February 21. Immigrants should hold a valid visa and have been vaccinated with 2 doses of approved vaccine. Under the background that the United States, Britain and other countries have gradually opened their doors in the second half of last year, Australia was jokingly called a “hermit country”. We think this means that the overall trend of the international travel market is improving.
2) on February 9, according to the news from CBI, a two-week test of direct flights between China and the UK may be launched this month. If the test is successful, regular direct flights between China and the UK may be resumed in the future. The planned test will start in the middle and late of this month. The route is two round-trip routes from London Heathrow LHR to Shanghai Pudong PVG, with a maximum passenger capacity of 30%.
3) on February 9, the official of Yunnan Provincial Department of culture and tourism announced the “notice on the resumption of inter provincial team tourism in our province from now on”. Since there are no medium and high-risk areas for epidemic prevention and control in Yunnan Province, Yunnan travel agencies and online tourism enterprises will resume the operation of inter provincial team tourism and “air ticket + Hotel” business from February 9, 2022.
Based on the above positive signals, we believe that:
1) 2022 is the year of bottom reversal of tourism and catering related consumption. The path of high probability liberalization is first China and then the country. The liberalization of China’s travel is in progress. The liberalization of the country is in the designated road map. There are expected to be three policy window periods in 2022, namely, after the Winter Olympics, after the two sessions and after the 20th National Congress;
2) the downgrade of global epidemic control will have a systematic impact on the overall consumption sector β， The profit exposure of demand recovery and cost reduction expanded to strengthen the value of consumption allocation;
3) the expectation of the capital market has been formed. Vacation is better than business, and the long-term is better than the surrounding.
Sections and suggestions
\u3000\u30001. Tax exempt [ China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ] [ Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) ];
\u3000\u30002. Hotel [ Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) ] [ Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ] [ Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ] [Huazhu group];
\u3000\u30003. The theme park of the destination [Haichang Ocean Park] [Fosun travel culture], the scenic spot of the destination [ China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) ] [ Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) ] [ Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) ] [ Emei Shan Tourism Company Limited(000888) ] [ Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) ], etc;
\u3000\u30004. OTA [Ctrip] [Tongcheng Yilong];
\u3000\u30005. Catering chain catering and supply chain [jiumaojiu] [hailun company] [Haidilao] [ Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) ] [Yihai international]; On site tea and supply chain of catering [Naixue’s tea] [ Shanghai Hi-Road Food Technology Co.Ltd(300915) ] [ Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) ] [ Namchow Food Group( Shanghai) Co.Ltd(605339) ] [ Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) ]; Prefabricated dishes for catering [ Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) ] [ Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) ];
\u3000\u30006. Outbound travel [ Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) ];
\u3000\u30007. Airport Airlines [ Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) ] [ Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) ] [Meilan Airport] [ China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) ] [ Air China Limited(601111) ] [ China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) ];
\u3000\u30008. Pay special attention to the value of consumption sector allocation.
Prompt: the risk of epidemic recovery is less than expected; Strengthen epidemic prevention and control and increase risk; Downside risks of macro consumption; Market competition risk, etc.
