Events
On February 10, the central bank released the social financing data of January 2022. At the end of January 2022, the stock of social financing scale was 320.05 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.5%, and the growth rate increased by 0.17pct month on month. At the end of January, the balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits was 242.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, M2 increased by 9.8% and M1 decreased by 1.9%.
Comments
In January, the increment of social financing scale was 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year. RMB loans, government bonds and corporate bonds mainly drove the increment of social financing. In terms of dismantling, the new RMB loans (Social Finance caliber) in January was 4.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 380.6 billion yuan year-on-year; Corporate bonds and government bonds were 579.9 billion yuan and 602.6 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 188.2 billion yuan and 358.9 billion yuan respectively year-on-year. Under the guidance of the goal of “steady growth” and the policy of “appropriately moving forward”, the issuance rhythm of local special bonds in 2022 is significantly ahead, driving the social finance data in January, in which infrastructure construction is the key investment field. It is expected that under the guidance of the policy of “special bond issuance should be ‘early, accurate and fast’, the government bonds will continue to increase high in the first quarter and contribute to the social finance increment. In addition, the pressure drop of off balance sheet financing scale continued in the later stage of the disposal of the new asset management regulations. In January, trust loans and entrusted loans increased by 16.2 billion yuan and 33.7 billion yuan respectively year-on-year. In addition, the issuance of bank bills increased in January, an increase of 615 billion yuan over December last year.
In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan over the same period last year, showing the characteristics of “increasing total amount and good structure”. There is a strong demand for enterprise credit and significant structural improvement. In January, 2.1 trillion yuan of medium and long-term loans were added to enterprises, accounting for 50% of the new RMB loans. On the basis of the high base in the same period last year, an increase of 60 billion yuan was achieved year-on-year, the first year-on-year increase since July 2021. The main reason is that banks adhere to the principle of “early investment and early benefit”, accelerate credit investment and support economic growth, Remarkable results; Short term loans and bill financing of new enterprises were 1.01 trillion yuan and 178.8 billion yuan respectively, with an increase of 434.5 billion yuan and 319.3 billion yuan respectively year-on-year, mainly because banks still have the phenomenon of short loan + bill impulse. In addition, small and micro enterprises with unprecedented policy support also have a high demand for short loan in order to alleviate cash flow. Residents’ demand for credit financing is weak. In January, residents’ short-term loans and medium and long-term loans increased by 227.2 billion and 202.4 billion respectively year-on-year. The impact of the epidemic on consumption is the main reason for the weak growth of short-term loans; The high base effect in the same period of 2021 and the current prosperity of real estate sales have not yet rebounded, which are likely to drag down mortgage loans. In January, the credit data achieved a “good start” than expected. The signs of smooth transmission from broad money to broad credit are clear. The arrival of broad credit is just around the corner. The first quarter has been an important time point for bank credit over the years. It is expected that the performance of credit data in February and the first quarter will continue to improve, and the medium and long-term loan demand of enterprises will continue to rebound soon.
Infrastructure loans + green loans + high-end manufacturing loans + inclusive small and micro loans are the important fulcrum of wide credit in 2022. With the heavy support of structural monetary policy, in 2021, medium and long-term infrastructure / inclusive small and micro enterprises / green loans increased by 3.82 trillion / 4.13 trillion / 3.86 trillion respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.3% / 27.3% / 33% respectively, both exceeding the new real estate loans of 3.81 trillion. In addition, medium and long-term loans in high-tech manufacturing industry also achieved a high growth rate of 32.80%, and the credit structure was greatly improved. From the central bank’s statements of “actively adding up the structural monetary policy tools” and “making the monetary policy toolbox bigger”, the intensity of structural monetary policy will increase unabated in 2022, and infrastructure + Green + high-end manufacturing + inclusive small and micro loans will drive the continuous volume of bank credit in 2022.
The m1-m2 scissors saw a significant decline in growth. In January 2022, the deposit increment was 3.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 260 billion yuan year-on-year, of which the resident deposit and enterprise deposit increased by 5.41 trillion yuan / – 1.40 trillion yuan respectively, an increase of 3.93 trillion yuan / a decrease of 2.35 trillion yuan respectively compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the migration of enterprise demand deposits to resident deposits caused by the payment of salaries and benefits by enterprises caused by the dislocation of the Spring Festival. In January, M2 and M1 increased by 9.8% year-on-year and decreased by 1.9% year-on-year respectively. The m2-m1 scissors difference was 11.70%, up 6.20pct month on month, mainly due to the sharp decline in M1 growth rate. Excluding the influence of the wrong timing of the Spring Festival, M1 only increased by about 2% year-on-year, mainly due to the negative impact of the decline in real estate sales and the tightening of urban investment and financing. With the marginal easing at the policy level and the recovery of the enterprise financing environment, the growth rate of M1 may pick up in February.
“Stabilizing the economy” is full of determination, wide credit is just around the corner, and the market of bank stocks has arrived. In January, the China Citic Bank Corporation Limited(601998) index increased by 2.28% and achieved an excess return of 9.48%. All listed banks except Zhejiang Shaoxing Ruifeng Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601528) obtained an excess return, and 13 banks obtained an excess return of more than 10%. Among them, the cumulative excess returns of Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) and Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) in January were 17.39% / 16.86% / 20.06% respectively.
Investment advice
In January 2022, social finance achieved a better “start” than expected, the goals of “increasing the total amount of RMB loans and good institutions”, “stable growth” and “stable credit” were fulfilled, the monetary policy was overweight, the credit was wide, the concern about asset quality was alleviated, and the market of bank stocks has come. At present, the safety margin of the bank sector is still high. It is suggested to pay active attention to bank stocks, infrastructure, green Banks with advantages in high-end manufacturing and Pratt & Whitney small and micro businesses. Risk statement
The growth rate of infrastructure investment is lower than expected; The strength of monetary policy is less than expected.
