\u3000\u3000 Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (600933)
Event overview
The company announced: the company plans to sign the investment agreement with the Management Committee of Anhui Hanshan Economic Development Zone, and plans to build the intelligent manufacturing project of three electricity system parts and auto structural parts of new energy vehicles in Anhui Hanshan Economic Development Zone by stages.
Analysis and judgment:
Layout of Anhui radiation new energy main engine plant
The total planned land area of this project is about 330 mu, which is constructed by stages. It mainly produces aluminum alloy parts and automobile structural parts of battery system unit, motor system unit and electronic control system unit of new energy vehicles. In order to support the company’s follow-up projects, about 304 mu of land is reserved, and the reserved time shall not exceed two years from the date of implementation of the land index of the plot. We believe that the company’s investment in building a production base in Anhui this time can improve the response speed, enhance customer stickiness, effectively reduce the production and transportation costs of products, provide better services for customers, help expand Weilai and other new energy host plants, and promote the transformation of new energy at full speed. The company has expanded its new energy three electricity system and structural parts from small and medium-sized parts, upgraded from tier2 to Tier1, actively expanded its production to meet the rapidly growing new business needs, and is expected to seize more share in the lightweight 100 billion market.
Expand production and integrate the layout of new energy categories
The company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise no more than 1.6 billion yuan (including), which will be used for the Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) Intelligent Manufacturing Technology Industrial Park project. The construction site is located in Ningbo. After the completion of the project, 7.1 million new energy vehicle battery system units, new energy vehicle motor shells, new energy vehicle body parts, new energy vehicle electronic control and other shells will be added, It is expected to contribute significant performance increment. The company has continuously extended its application from small and medium-sized parts to three electric systems and body structural parts of new energy vehicles. The customer structure has also expanded from Tier1 to new energy host plant, actively transforming and embracing new energy. Based on the continuous competitive advantage of small and medium-sized products, the company strives to make the proportion of new energy vehicle products represented by core parts and structural parts of three electricity system of new energy vehicles exceed 30% by 2025 and 70% by 2030.
Tesla leads the general trend of integrated die-casting. The integrated die-casting body is an upgrade of lightweight technology, reducing the number of body parts and greatly simplifying the body structure; At the same time of lightweight, it simplifies the supply chain. It has many advantages, such as reducing vehicle weight, reducing battery cost, high utilization rate of raw materials, reducing factory floor area and so on, so as to greatly improve the efficiency of automobile assembly. Through the implementation of the fund-raising investment project, the company will introduce advanced medium and large-scale lean die-casting units at home and abroad ranging from 800 tons to 8400 tons, enhance the company’s competitiveness in the field of integrated die-casting, and is expected to seize more shares in the light weight trillion market.
Accelerating the development of electric intelligence and continuously promoting globalization
The demand for aluminum alloy for new energy vehicles is more urgent. We expect that the supporting value of single vehicle can be increased by 50% – 100%; Based on light weight, complex manufacturing and thin-walled castings, aluminum alloy has high dimensional stability, strong corrosion resistance, high thermal conductivity and conductivity. It has a large application space in automotive vision system, electric power steering system, electronic control unit and so on, and conforms to the development of intelligence. During the life of the new project, the company is expected to increase its income to a new high. It has added electric intelligent projects such as Valeo, Continental, United electronics, ebech, Nippon power, bogwarner, Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) , bonch, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Shunyu group, Suteng juchuang, Weilai, Zero run and ideal. In 2021h1, it has obtained new energy vehicle project, thermal management system project It is expected that the new sales revenue will account for more than 50% within the service life of the automotive vision system project.
We expect that the global market share of the company’s wiper products (including motor housing, connecting rod support, drive arm, etc.) will reach 30%, and the market share of other products will not exceed 10%. There is still much room for improvement. With the steady progress of the company’s intelligent manufacturing, the production efficiency brought by the “digital” factory has been greatly improved, and the cost performance advantage has become more and more obvious, which will accelerate the global share and the market share is expected to continue to increase.
Investment advice
We are optimistic about the continuous increase of the company’s market share in the field of traditional products and the driving effect of the development of electric intelligent supporting business on the revenue. Considering the impact of the gradual repair of overseas demand and the rise of raw material prices, we maintain the profit forecast: it is estimated that the company’s revenue in 2021-23 will be 3.10/37.8/4.52 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.4/6.5/79 billion yuan and EPS will be 0.51/0.75/0.92 yuan, Corresponding to the closing price of 18.55 yuan / share on February 10, 2022, PE is 36 / 25 / 20 times. Considering the strategic transformation of the company, 30 times PE will be given in 2022, the target price of 22.50 yuan will remain unchanged, and the “buy” rating will be maintained.
Risk tips
The impact of lack of core is higher than expected; The improvement of overseas passenger car demand is lower than expected; Raw material prices rose more than expected.
