\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Sk Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688155) (688155)
Key investment points
Event:
Announcement of listed companies: planning major asset restructuring and signing the letter of intent for equity acquisition. It is proposed to acquire 51% equity of Ningde Dongheng Machinery Co., Ltd. in cash.
The acquisition of Ningde Dongheng machinery has cut into the structural parts of lithium battery modules, and a major breakthrough has been made in the layout of new products. According to the official website, Ningde Dongheng machinery is mainly engaged in the structural parts of lithium battery modules (battery shell, module / pack shell, etc.), and has been selected as a “specialized and special new” enterprise in Ningde City (2019) and an excellent supplier of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (2018). Dongheng mechanical lithium battery structural parts are expected to have upstream and downstream cooperation with the company’s new energy vehicle automation equipment, further improve the company’s production capacity, expand customers, and strengthen the two wheel drive development strategy of new energy vehicle equipment and products.
The equity incentive plan was approved by the general meeting of shareholders, demonstrating the confidence of the management
The company has previously released the 2022 equity incentive plan: a total of 1 million restricted shares have been granted, including 875200 shares for the first time. The granting price of restricted shares is 108 yuan (the current stock price is 119 yuan), and the granting objects include 148 directors, senior managers and business backbones of the company.
New energy vehicle model group / pack equipment leader, five factors driving performance acceleration
The five factors are: 1) the growth of new energy vehicles; 2) Improve the automation rate of equipment; 3) Domestic substitution; 4) Globalization; 5) Breakthroughs in new products and new fields.
It is estimated that China’s module / pack line market will reach 11.3 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 19% from 2021 to 2025. Driving forces for growth: 1) the penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 11.46 million in 2025; 2) At present, China’s module / pack automation rate is only about 40%, which is expected to continue to increase under the influence of policies, labor cost improvement, industrial structure adjustment and other factors, and is expected to increase to 80% by 2025. From domestic substitution to global supply. 1) At present, the medium and high-end market of China’s module / pack line is still dominated by foreign capital. The company is a leading enterprise of domestic brands. We estimate that the company’s market share in China will be about 25% in 2020.
2) new energy vehicles in Europe and America are growing rapidly. It is estimated that the market scale of European / American module / pack line will reach 8.3 billion yuan / 5.3 billion yuan respectively in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will reach 20% / 67%. The company has set up two subsidiaries in North America and Germany and overseas offices in the Czech Republic. Globalization is expected to make a breakthrough. Breakthroughs in new products and new fields. Relay power lithium battery module / pack line, the company has rich reserves in module / pack products, energy storage, fuel cell assembly line and other fields, and has completed the delivery of relevant projects of important customers.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 0.8/2.9/420 billion respectively, with a compound growth rate of 90% in three years; The corresponding PE from 2021 to 2023 is 111 / 31 / 22 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: industry competition intensifies, and the expansion of new products is less than expected
