\u3000\u3000 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (600258)
Annual performance turnaround and Q4 phased loss: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company will be 45-65 million yuan, the loss in the same period last year will be 500 million yuan, the net profit not attributable to the parent company will be deducted from 8-12 million yuan, and the loss in the same period last year will be 530 million yuan. 21q4 realized a net loss of RMB 60.09-80.09 million, with a profit of RMB 59.01 million in the same period last year; Deduct the net loss of 81.45-85.45 million yuan, and the profit in the same period last year was 45.28 million yuan. Although the implementation of the epidemic prevention and control strategy of the company has improved significantly in 2021, the overall revenue of the hotel industry has achieved remarkable results in 2021; From the single fourth quarter, the intensification of 21q4 epidemic disturbance affected the hotel industry, and the company’s performance showed phased losses.
Q4 has significantly accelerated the opening of stores month on month, and achieved the opening goal of the whole year: the company opened more than 1400 new stores in 2021, reaching an all-time high and achieving the goal at the beginning of the year. Quarter by quarter, 184 / 324 / 325 / at least 567 stores were newly opened on 21q1 / 2 / 3 / 4, and the opening speed of Q4 was significantly faster than that of Huazhu group (compared with 21q1 / 2 / 3 / 4, 210 / 401 / 482 / 447 respectively). In addition, by the end of the year 21, the company had more than 1600 reserve stores, with a month on month decrease of about 238 (compared with pipeline 2571 and a month on month decrease of about 256 by Huazhu group by the end of the year 21). On the whole, the new stores still have support in 2022; The company applies 5g / Cloud Computing / artificial intelligence and other digital technologies to fully promote the digital construction of the hotel and improve the guest service experience and hotel operation efficiency.
Commitment of BTG to promote the settlement of horizontal competition with listed companies: ① BTG Jianguo, a subsidiary of the company, signed a five-year discretionary management service agreement with Xinqiao Hotel, a subsidiary of the group, and BTG Jianguo is expected to charge a management fee of about 7.5 million yuan. ② The company’s subsidiary rujiahemei signed a 10-year lease agreement with the group’s subsidiary Shangyuan Hotel, with a cumulative amount of 86.218 million yuan. The property is mainly used for hotel business operation. ③ The company’s subsidiary ShouLv Jianguo signed a 4-year and 11 month discretionary management service agreement with the group’s subsidiary Liangmahe building. ShouLv Jianguo is expected to charge a management fee of about 5.17 million yuan.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: considering that the 21q4 epidemic and 22q1 Chinese hotel market are still disturbed by the epidemic, we lowered the company’s profit forecast for 21-22 years, adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2.1/10.1/1.68 billion yuan to 0.5/6.5/1.3 billion yuan, and the corresponding PE for 22-23 years is 46 / 23x respectively. After the short-term attention, the recovery progress of hotels under the epidemic is optimistic about the growth trend of hotel group joining in the medium and long term Pay attention to the potential acceleration of the first trip.
Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risk; The recovery of the epidemic situation is less than the expected risk, and the opening of stores is less than the expected risk; The performance forecast is only the preliminary calculation results, and the specific data shall be subject to the officially released annual report.
