\u3000\u3000 Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) (300861)
Event: in order to further improve the production efficiency of equipment, rapidly expand production capacity and try our best to meet the needs of customers, the company continued to carry out efficiency improvement and transformation on the basis of the original "single machine nine lines" production line, and successfully implemented the technical upgrading of "single machine twelve lines", with the production efficiency increased by 33% compared with the original "single machine nine lines", It is expected to complete the technical transformation of all the above production lines by the end of June 2022.
Comments:
The upgrading of production line reduces production costs and further strengthens the competitiveness of the company. The company's "single machine" technology can shake the industry's leading position within 12 months after the "single machine technology transformation" is launched, and the company can lead the industry's technology upgrading within 12 years. We estimate that the technical transformation cost of each equipment is about 120000-150000 yuan, but the production efficiency is 33% higher than that of the original nine line machine, and the corresponding annual production capacity is more than 23 million kilometers. At the same time, the manufacturing costs of rent, hydropower, labor and other products will be fully amortized, and the costs will be further reduced.
Silicon material capacity release is fully beneficial to diamond line. In the past two years, the bottleneck of the photovoltaic industry's installation lies in silicon materials. Since the fourth quarter of the 21st year, the new silicon material production capacity has climbed smoothly. We expect that silicon materials will enter the production capacity intensive launch period in 22q1, which directly stimulates the demand of diamond line. At the same time, we expect that the company's capacity utilization will continue to improve. The expansion of silicon production also promotes the industry to reduce costs and expand demand, and ensures that the installed capacity of the photovoltaic industry continues to rise in 22 years.
Technical barriers are insurmountable and breakthrough development 36 μ M wire diameter. The company continues to promote 36 μ M. The Application of diamond thin line is ahead of competitors. At the same time, it continues to promote the process of thin line, and continues to implement the company's development policies of "production generation", "reserve generation" and "research generation". Under the background that the price of silicon material remains relatively high, downstream silicon wafer customers have ensured the profitability by thinning the thickness of silicon wafer and reducing silicon loss. Through the continuous promotion of thin line, the company not only consolidates its own technical advantages, but also contributes to the cost reduction and efficiency increase of downstream customers, and deeply binds the cooperative relationship.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1899, 2391 and 3125 million, with a year-on-year increase of 57.6%, 25.9% and 30.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 793, 1001 and 1335 million, with a year-on-year increase of 76.3%, 26.2% and 33.4%. The current stock price corresponds to PE of 29.04, 23.01 and 17.25x from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk factors: covid-19 epidemic and other factors lead to the risk that the global PV installation is less than expected; Risk that the company's profit is lower than expected due to product price fluctuation; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; Risk of technical route change, etc.
