Satellite Chemistry (002648)
C3's leading position has been continuously consolidated and its comprehensive competitiveness has been continuously enhanced
As the leading C3 industry in China, the company has 900 thousand tons of propylene production capacity, 450 thousand tons of polypropylene production capacity, 660 thousand tons of acrylic acid production capacity, 750 thousand tons of acrylic ester production capacity, 220 thousand tons of hydrogen peroxide production capacity, 210 thousand tons of polymer emulsion production capacity, 150 thousand SAP production capacity, and 21 thousand tons of organic pigment intermediate. In 2021h1, the company's C3 bulk chemicals achieved a revenue of 7.71 billion yuan, an increase of 97% at the same time; The gross profit was 2.5 billion yuan, an increase of 168%. Meanwhile, the company's annual output of 250000 tons of hydrogen peroxide (including electronic hydrogen peroxide) project will be put into operation in 2022; 800000 tons of PDH, 800000 tons of butyl octanol and 120000 tons of neopentyl glycol are also expected to be put into operation by the end of 2023. In the next 2021-2024 years, the company's C3 business (including polymer latex, SAP, etc.) will achieve revenues of 181, 204, 228, and 31 billion 500 million yuan, with gross profit 61, 56, 61 and 9 billion 300 million yuan respectively.
Actively layout the C2 industrial chain, and the company's performance will reach a new height. The company steadily promotes the diversified development strategy and actively layout Jiangsu Lianyungang Port Co.Ltd(601008) C2 industrial chain projects. At present, phase I of C2 project has been completed and put into operation, mainly including 1.25 million tons of ethylene, 400000 tons of HDPE, 250000 tons of polyether macromonomer and 1.44/1.82 million tons of EO / EG cogeneration unit. In 2021h1, the company's C2 business achieved a revenue of 1.53 billion yuan and a gross profit of 560 million yuan. C2 phase II is also expected to be put into operation in the first half of 2022. Its main production capacity includes 1.25 million tons of ethylene, 400000 tons of HDPE, 720000 tons of EO, 600000 tons of styrene, 250000 tons of polyether macromonomer and 260000 tons of acrylonitrile. At the same time, the company plans to build a green chemical new material industrial park project, with a layout of 200000 tons of ethanolamine, 750000 tons of battery grade carbonate series, 800000 tons of polystyrene and 100000 tons α- The profitability of olefins and supporting Poe continued to improve. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2024, the company's C2 business will achieve revenue of RMB 8.31 billion, 21.7 billion, 29.5 billion and 30.6 billion, gross profit of RMB 2.9 billion, 6.7 billion, 9.8 billion and 10.6 billion, and there will be a broader growth space in the future.
Driven by the goal of carbon neutrality, the company will meet new development opportunities
Under the double carbon background, the company will obtain new development opportunities. On the one hand, the company uses ethane, propane and other low-carbon raw materials to produce olefins and downstream products to reduce carbon emissions from the source; At the same time, the company has a capacity of 750000 tons of battery grade carbonate to collect the carbon dioxide generated in production and use it to produce carbonate, which can be applied to lithium electrolyte to achieve real green development. On the other hand, the company actively responds to the national hydrogen energy policy and the growing hydrogen energy demand in the market, and uses the surplus hydrogen in the production process to expand the hydrogen energy business. At present, the company's annual output of 900000 tons of PDH unit by-product hydrogen is 72000 tons / year, the first phase of C2 project by-product hydrogen is 70000 tons / year, and the second phase can produce 70000 tons / year of hydrogen. Coupled with the by-product hydrogen obtained from the new 800000 tons of PDH unit in Dushan Port, the company is expected to become a major hydrogen gas supplier in the Yangtze River Delta, and the hydrogen energy business will also become a new performance growth point of the company.
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 6.131, 8.144 and 10.676 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 3.56, 4.73 and 6.21 yuan / share, corresponding to 12.79, 9.63 and 7.35 times of PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: economic downside risk; Raw material price fluctuation risk; The production progress of the project is less than expected; Safety and production risks; Increased risk of competition in the same industry; The price of end products fluctuates sharply
