\u3000\u3000 Glodon Company Limited(002410) (002410)
Digital cost: the cloud transformation has achieved remarkable results and ushered in the performance cashing period. Since 2017, the company has started the cost cloud transformation, and the transformation will be carried out in the last four regions in 2021. As of the first half of 2021, the transformation rate in 2017 and 2018 is more than 85%, and the renewal rate is more than 80%; In 2019, the conversion rate and renewal rate in the transition areas are more than 85%; In 2020, the transformation rate in the transition areas will reach 70%, and the renewal rate will be more than 85%; In 2021, the transformation rate of new transformation areas is more than 40%, with remarkable results. The company’s charging mode has changed from the traditional software sales (one-time software sales fee + follow-up upgrade service fee) to the SaaS mode of annual charging, and the relevant income has changed from one-time recognition to phased recognition according to the service period. Therefore, the profit in the transition period is under pressure. From the perspective of business development, the company’s cloud transformation can smooth the performance cycle, improve the payment rate of software and value-added services, increase user stickiness and manufacturer market share, and further stimulate business vitality; From a financial point of view, the gross profit margin of the company’s digital cost business exceeds 90%, and the profitability is superior; From the perspective of industry space, we expect the scale of China’s cost software market to be about 9 billion yuan in 2025. As an industry leader, the company is expected to enjoy the industry dividend and realize long-term sustainable development.
Digital construction: Aiming at the blue ocean market of smart construction sites under construction informatization, there is a broad growth space. The construction industry is one of China’s pillar industries. In 2020, the added value of the construction industry accounted for 7.2% of China’s GDP and the number of employees accounted for 5.5% of China’s working population. It has played an important role in maintaining growth and stabilizing employment. Under the background of China’s aging population and slowing economic growth, the construction industry is facing the problems of rising labor costs, insufficient information investment and low profit margin. The traditional extensive development model is unsustainable and needs information transformation urgently. Smart construction site is a brand-new project management concept, which integrates advanced technologies such as sensing, mobile Internet, big data, cloud computing, AI and BIM into the construction site to make the construction safer and more efficient. According to the statistics of smart research consulting and new thinking, the market scale of smart construction site in China will be 13.86 billion yuan in 2020 and is expected to reach 36 billion yuan in 2025, The compound annual growth rate was 21%, with strong growth momentum. From 2014 to 2020, the company’s digital construction business increased from 83 million yuan to 943 million yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of about 50%. The smart construction site is in the blue ocean market, and the company’s market share is only 6.8%, with broad growth space.
Digital design: the future can be expected under the wave of localization driven by policy. The basic software of BIM is monopolized by foreign manufacturers Autodesk (global market share 67.92%) and benteley (global market share 14.37%). China has successively issued policies related to construction informatization. We believe that on the one hand, the construction informatization market model with BIM as the core will grow rapidly, on the other hand, Chinese manufacturers are expected to take advantage of the policy spring breeze, The domestic trend of overtaking is realized under the curve. In 2020, the global BIM software market was about US $5.6 billion. As the leader of cost software in the construction information industry, the company has technical experience in service and acquired BIM designer Hongye Technology, which can be expected in the future.
For the first time, give a “buy” rating. The company is the leader of digital building platform service, and its products cover digital cost, digital construction and digital design. The cloud cost transformation has achieved remarkable results and is in the performance cashing period; Digital construction and digital design business have broad space and great growth potential. Using the peg valuation method, 1.5 times peg will be given in 2023, corresponding to 91 times PE and 124.9 billion yuan market value in 2023.
Risk tips: 1 The cost of cloud transformation is less than expected; 2. The informatization development of construction industry is less than expected; 3. Industry competition intensifies.
