\u3000\u3000 Jangho Group Co.Ltd(601886) (601886)
The company recently announced the performance forecast for 21 years. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent of 21fy is -940 ~ - 1.13 billion (vs20fy is + 950 million), and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent is -1.05 ~ - 1.24 billion (vs20fy is + 560 million). The corresponding net profit attributable to parent company in 21q4 is - 1.46 ~ - 1.65 billion (vs20q4 is + 550 million), and the net profit deducted from non attributable to parent company is - 1.43 ~ - 1.62 billion (vs20q4 is + 240 million). The company's 21q4 significant loss is mainly due to two parts of large impairment, which is mainly composed of two parts: 1) 21fy has accrued 1.68 billion for the receivables of a customer, a subsidiary and an affiliated company (mainly from the holding subsidiary Gangyuan decoration, which has accrued 1.89 billion in total, including about 780 million of the net receivable exposure of materials supplied by Party A, including about 504 million of the assets such as credit being processed); 2) It is estimated that the impairment loss of goodwill is 394 million (roughly the net book value of goodwill at the end of 21fy generated from the purchase of Gangyuan decoration in the early stage of the provision. It is estimated that the scale of the company's goodwill will decrease to 437 million after the provision, accounting for 1.5% of the total asset scale at the end of 21q3).
Recently, the company also announced the main business data of the year 21. The total bid winning amount of 21fy building decoration sector is 26.4 billion, yoy + 9.6% (compared with 19fycagr + 8.6%, vs21q1-3 compared with 19q1-3cagr + 10.4%), of which the bid winning amount of curtain wall system and interior decoration system is 14.5 billion and 11.9 billion respectively, yoy is + 3.3% and + 18.6% (compared with 19fycagr + 4.5% and + 14.3%, vs21q1-3 compared with 19q1-3cagr + 7.5% and + 14.5% respectively). The growth of newly signed contracts is resilient.
The company also announced that it had won the bid for the first BIPV project recently. The wholly-owned subsidiary Beijing Jianghe curtain wall recently received the roof project of Beijing industrial reconstruction and reconstruction project from Beijing Construction Engineering Group, with a bid winning amount of about 280 million, accounting for about 1.5% of the company's 20fy revenue. The construction scope of the company's bid winning project includes roof structure, roof special process design, roof photovoltaic power generation and other engineering contents, The total area of curtain wall involved is about 65800 square meters.
Sufficient risk release
The large loss of 21fy and 21q4 performance of the company is mainly due to the large impairment related to Gangyuan decoration, the holding subsidiary, caused by the risk events in the real estate industry. The remaining goodwill generated from the early acquisition of Gangyuan decoration is basically withdrawn; At the same time, we speculate that the company has a high proportion of impairment of receivables from risk customers (accounts receivable, notes receivable and contract assets, the same below) (the announcement shows that excluding the credit assets being processed, the net exposure of relevant receivables is about 280 million, accounting for about 1.7% of the company's receivables at the end of 21q3), and the risk release of early statements is relatively sufficient.
It is worth to maintain the "BIPV" rating of the first curtain wall project, and it is worth buying the "BIPV" rating
The company is the leader of curtain wall engineering in China and has global brand awareness. The company has long been committed to the R & D and application of energy-saving and environmental protection technology in curtain wall system. Under the background of "double carbon" and energy structure adjustment, photovoltaic curtain wall may meet development opportunities. The first BIPV project won the bid shows the company's industry influence and transformation results, and the prospect is worth looking forward to. At the same time, we expect the fundamentals of the decoration business to gradually bottom out. We lowered the forecast of the company's net profit attributable to the parent for 21-23 years to -10.5/8.8/1.11 billion, and the current price corresponds to the company's 22-year PE of only 8.5x. It is suggested to pay attention to the transformation prospect of the company's photovoltaic buildings. The landing of the first BIPV order is of great significance. The company's 22-year target pe15x is recognized, the target price is raised to 11.40 yuan, and the "buy" rating is maintained.
Risk warning: the newly signed order is not as expected; Impairment risk; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; The promotion of Ophthalmology business is less than expected; The layout rhythm of photovoltaic building integration project is lower than expected; The performance forecast is only the preliminary accounting results, and the specific data shall be subject to the annual report disclosed by the company
