\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) (300122)
“Self research + agency” has created a rich pipeline of vaccine products, and the performance of two wheel drive company has increased rapidly.
Relying on abundant R & D capital investment and strong marketing team, the company has built a rich “self-developed” + “agent” human non immune planning vaccine product pipeline, including 6 self-developed products: acyw135 group meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine, group a group C meningococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine, Haemophilus influenzae type b conjugate vaccine, Mycobacterium vaccae for injection Recombinant Mycobacterium tuberculosis fusion protein (EC) and recombinant covid-19 vaccine approved for emergency use in 2021; 5 agent products: HPV4 (Saccharomyces cerevisiae), hpv9 (Saccharomyces cerevisiae), oral five valent reconstituted live attenuated rotavirus vaccine (Vero cells), 23 valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine and Purified Inactivated Hepatitis A vaccine. Two wheel drive helps the company’s performance grow rapidly year after year. From 2017 to 2019, benefiting from the rapid growth of sales of HPV vaccine based agent products, the annual revenue growth rate was more than 100% year-on-year. In 2021, the sales revenue of covid-19 vaccine products made up for the impact of the epidemic on the sales of other products. The revenue in the first three quarters reached 21.829 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.55%.
The company is the sole agent of moshadong HPV vaccine and other products. The sales revenue has increased 40 times in four years, and the agreed purchase amount is nearly 20 billion yuan in 2023.
The company first reached a cooperative promotion agreement with MSD in 2011. Since then, with excellent marketing channels and promotion ability, the company has renewed the exclusive agency agreement for many times, and obtained the exclusive agency rights of four price and nine price HPV vaccines in China in 2017 and 2018 respectively. Since then, the sales revenue of the company’s agent products has rapidly expanded from 274 million yuan in 2017 (accounting for 20.41% of the total revenue) to 13.955 billion yuan in 2020 (accounting for 91.87% of the total revenue), an increase of more than 40 times. According to the latest renewed agreement between the company and MSD and the gross profit margin of past agency income, it is estimated that the agency business income of the company will increase at a compound growth rate of 26.8% from 2020 to 2023, and exceed 25 billion yuan in 2023.
The self-developed heavyweight vaccine products are gradually entering the harvest period, and the multi-dimensional product matrix is expected to contribute more than 10 billion yuan to create the second growth curve.
In addition to covid-19 vaccine, the overall scale of revenue from self-developed products is expected to exceed 6 billion yuan in 2023. In 2020, the annual revenue of independent products was 1.2 billion yuan; As of the mid-2021 report, the revenue of independent products has reached 6 billion yuan, of which covid-19 vaccine contributes the main revenue. After the full vaccination, the covid-19 vaccine of the company may be approved to strengthen the needle with its excellent clinical data of delta strain, superimposed with some overseas orders, which is expected to continue to contribute to large sales in 2022. The sales results of other self-developed products are worth looking forward to: ① the new batch of indications of wechat to prevent pulmonary tuberculosis among people with latent infection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (LTBI), which is the first in the world and is one of the promotion priorities of the company in 2022. EC and wechat jointly promote the detection end and prevention end, and the total revenue is expected to exceed 4.5 billion yuan in 2025; ② The arrangement of the follow-up pipelines for the series of meningococcal vaccine products and Hib vaccine adapts to the current transformation trend of meningococcal vaccine from bivalent to tetravalent, from polysaccharide to combination, and from single vaccine to combined vaccine. The total sales scale is expected to exceed 1.2 billion yuan in 2025. ③ In addition, 23 valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine, influenza virus split vaccine, human diploid crazy vaccine, tetravalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine and other heavy vaccine products are expected to be approved successively in the next 2-3 years, which will continue to contribute to the second growth curve of income.
Investment suggestion: for the first time, give the company a “buy” rating
The company’s performance will be driven by the marketing network, and achieve continuous and high-speed growth by continuously expanding the scale of agency and self-developed vaccine sales business. On the one hand, the company will rely on the most powerful marketing team in private vaccine enterprises to continue to maintain a close agency cooperation relationship with MSD and continue to act as an agent for heavy-duty vaccines HPV4 and hvp9. On the other hand, the company will reap new growth by cultivating existing self-developed products, especially heavy-duty product micro cards, and launching a number of heavy-duty self-developed products in the next 2-3 years. It is estimated that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 30.6/29/33 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 101.7% / – 2.3% / 10.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.1/91/9.3 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 206.4% / – 9.6% / 1.7%; Since the sales of covid-19 vaccine in the next two years is greatly uncertain due to the severity of the epidemic and vaccination policies, regardless of the impact of covid-19 vaccine business on the company’s performance, we expect the company’s operating revenue to be 186 / 239 / 30 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 22.7% / 28.3% / 25.4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4 / 6 / 7.5 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8% / 50.6% / 25.0%; The PE of the company from 2021 to 2023 is 50x / 33x / 27x respectively. The average PE of comparable companies is about 51x. Considering the sustained and rapid development of the vaccine industry, the advantages of the company’s marketing team and the long-term growth brought by the continuous listing of heavy products in the next few years, we covered it for the first time and gave the company a “buy (first)” rating.
Risk tips
The risk that the market promotion is not as expected; The risk that the change of epidemic situation will affect the normal operation of the company; The risk that the progress of clinical approval is less than expected; The risk of agency business renewal failure, etc.
