Event: on February 8, 2022, the central bank issued the notice on the exclusion of affordable rental housing related loans from the management of real estate loan concentration. It is required that the relevant loans issued by banking financial institutions to indemnificatory rental housing projects with indemnificatory rental housing project identification letter shall not be included in the centralized management of real estate loans. At the same time, banking financial institutions are required to increase their support for affordable rental housing and provide financial products and services in accordance with the principles of legal compliance, controllable risk and commercial sustainability.
Indemnificatory rental housing loans were not included in the centralized management of housing loans, and the financing environment of real estate enterprises was further improved. In December 2020, the central bank issued the notice on establishing the real estate loan concentration management system of banking financial institutions to control the proportion of real estate loans and the upper limit of individual housing loans. After the implementation of the notice, the scale of real estate loans of banks continued to drop, which led to the obstruction of financing channels of real estate enterprises and the tension of capital chain. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the balance of affordable housing development loans accounted for 9.03% of the balance of real estate loans, and the balance of affordable housing development loans accounted for 2.45% of the total loans. Although the proportion of affordable housing development loans is not high, after being excluded from the centralized management of housing loans, the amount of commercial housing loans will be released to a certain extent, the capital pressure of real estate enterprises will be alleviated, and the financing environment will be further improved.
The construction of indemnificatory rental housing has received financial support, which is good for the head real estate enterprises and agent construction companies. The Ministry of housing and urban rural development said that in 2022, we should vigorously increase the supply of affordable rental housing, and raise 2.4 million units (rooms) of affordable rental housing throughout the year, which is 1.5 times the number planned in 2021, accounting for 37% of the total target of the 14th five year plan. On the one hand, the construction of indemnificatory housing will stimulate investment to achieve “stable growth”, on the other hand, it is also part of the “simultaneous development of rent and purchase”. Subsequently, relevant financial policies supporting the construction of indemnificatory rental housing may continue to be issued. In July 2021, the State Council issued the opinions of the general office of the State Council on accelerating the development of indemnificatory rental housing, which pointed out that “the government should provide policy support for land, finance, taxation and finance, give full play to the role of market mechanism, guide multi-body investment and multi-channel supply, and adhere to” who invests, who owns “, It has improved the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises to participate in the construction of affordable housing. The construction of indemnificatory rental housing has high requirements for the operating capacity and financial strength of real estate enterprises, which is beneficial to the head real estate enterprises and agent construction companies with strong financial strength.
Investment suggestion: in the short-term dimension, the warmer policy promotes the improvement of valuation. At present, the prosperity is still in the “downward trend”, and the policy is still in the “downward trend” and the basic growth is still in the “downward trend”. At present, the industry policy support is slowly unfolding, with a gradual transition from the supply side to the demand side. This notice is also a marginal improvement of the restrictions on the housing loan concentration management system. Later, we will pay attention to the implementation of policies before and after the two sessions, the first batch of centralized land supply and the acquisition and merger of real estate enterprises. We suggest paying attention to the leading stocks in the high-quality residential development industry: China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) (00000 2), Poly Real Estate (600048), Gemdale Corporation(600383) (600383), China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) (001979), Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) (601155), Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) (000656), and the leading agent construction company: Green City Management Holdings (9979. HK).
Risk tips: risk events ferment risks that exceed expectations and policy support is less than expected.
