Key investment points:
The number of film viewers at the box office has declined, ranking second in the box office of the Spring Festival over the years. According to the data of Lighthouse professional edition, the total box office of the Spring Festival in 2022 (January 31 - February 6) was 6.036 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.0%, ranking second in the box office of the Spring Festival over the years. Compared with 2021, there was a gap of about 1.8 billion yuan, slightly better than that of 2018 and 2019.
During the Spring Festival holiday, the total number of film viewers was 114 million, a difference of 46 million from 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 28.8%, which was higher than the decline of box office.
Investment suggestion: considering the special situation of the Spring Festival in 2021, which carries the volume of head content in 2020 and 2021, and the box office base of popular films is high, the decline of the Spring Festival in 2022 compared with 2021 is reasonable. However, on the whole, during the holidays, there were repeated epidemics in some areas, the ticket prices rose too fast and the film quality was lower than expected. As a result, the performance of the Spring Festival in 2022 was still lower than expected.
We are cautiously optimistic about the China Film Co.Ltd(600977) market in 2022. The decline of content supply capacity and the uncertainty of imported film performance and introduction caused by the epidemic may continue to have a certain impact on the industry in the short term. However, in the medium and long term, the restoration of film production progress outside China may reshape the audience's habit of going to the cinema, and the improvement of the fine management ability of epidemic prevention and control can alleviate the adverse impact of repeated epidemic on the industry to a certain extent. At the same time, after leaving the popular schedule, the ticket price will be adjusted in a more appropriate and reasonable range to smooth the impact on the viewing demand, China Film Co.Ltd(600977) the market is expected to return to steady growth.
In the post epidemic era, the fierce competition in the schedule intensifies the differentiation of box office performance, which may lead to some films becoming "cannon fodder" in the popular schedule. Considering that there are still successful cases of dark horse films such as anger · serious case, fame and millions, my sister and your wedding in some small or non schedule periods, We believe that in a healthy and benign market development pattern, the release rhythm of film content will be more reasonable and reduce the possible losses in non scheduled periods.
Investment ideas: suggestions: 1) content companies with high-quality film content production capacity and large project reserves should pay attention to the film filing progress and release performance; 2) Based on the market pattern of leading cinemas and film investment, which continue to improve the market share, and the business advantages that obviously exceed the overall level of the country, the concentration is expected to be further improved in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) , Beijing Enlight Media Co.Ltd(300251) , China Film Co.Ltd(600977) .
Risk warning: the risk of continuous recurrence of epidemic situation and virus mutation; The recovery of viewing demand is less than expected; Changes in content supervision policies; The film filing progress and market performance are not as expected; Residents' willingness to consume culture decreased
