In December, the output of Baijiu decreased in 21 years, and the terminal price of famous liquor dropped. In December 2021, the output of Baijiu reached 83.8 million liters, down 12.3% from the same period last year. In 2021, the total output of Baijiu reached 715.6 million liters nationwide, and the total production decreased by 0.6%. Jingdong’s best Baijiu liquor price in January 28th compared to December 31st price in 22 years: Jingdong 52 degrees Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) to 1388 yuan / bottle; 52 degrees Jiannanchun, down 11 yuan to 468 yuan / bottle; 52 degrees Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) down 114 yuan to 574 yuan / bottle.
Beer production increased year-on-year, and the volume and price of imported wine decreased. The beer industry produced 2.36 million kiloliters in December 2021, an increase of 10.9%. In 2021, the national cumulative beer output was 35.624 million kiloliters, with a cumulative increase of 5.6%. The price of imported barley was 297.4 US dollars / ton in December, up 22.2%. The wine industry produced 40000 kiloliters in December, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%. In 2021, the national cumulative output was 268000 kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 29.1%. In December, the import volume of wine was 38000 kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 21.6%; The average unit price of imports was US $4526 / kiloliter, a year-on-year decrease of 39.1%. In December, the liv ex50 index was 393.0, with a year-on-year increase of 13.3%; Livex100 index was 392.5, up 23.1% year-on-year; The liv ex500 index was 354.3, up 10.9% year-on-year.
The wholesale price of pork decreased month on month, and the price of corn soybean meal in China decreased year on year. On January 28, 2002, the wholesale price of fresh pork was 21.18 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.12 yuan / kg compared with January 22. On January 19, 22, the average price of beef in China was 88.12 yuan / kg, up 0.84 yuan / kg month on month compared with December 29. The price ratio of pig grain in large and medium-sized cities in China on January 26, 2002 was 5.57. On February 7, 2002, the spot price of corn in China was 2723 yuan / ton, down 8.93% at the same time; The spot price of soybean meal in China was 4073 yuan / ton, down 5.70% at the same time. On February 4, the international spot price of corn was $7.13/bushel.
The price increase of raw and fresh milk in China continued to narrow, and the price of overseas large bags of powder increased significantly. On January 19, 2002, the price of fresh milk in the main producing areas of the Ministry of agriculture was 4.27 yuan / kg, an increase of 0.2% year-on-year, unchanged month on month (MOM) on January 12; On February 1, 2002, the auction price of New Zealand whole milk powder contract was US $4324 / metric ton, an increase of 11.8% month on month compared with January 4; The contract price of skimmed milk powder was US $4051 / mt, up 7.4% month on month (MOM) on January 4. In December of 21, the import volume of liquid milk in that month was 119700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9%; In December, the import volume of fresh milk was 116800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%; In December, the import volume of milk powder in that month was 52000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.9%.
The growth rate of catering and social security maintained zero growth, and the growth rate of CPI food decreased month on month in December 21. In 2021, the cumulative value of catering industry revenue was 4689.49 billion yuan, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 18.6%. The annual revenue of Catering Enterprises above Designated Size totaled 1043.43 billion yuan, an increase of 23.5% year-on-year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2021 totaled 44.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.5% year-on-year. The national fixed asset investment completed in 2021 totaled 54.45 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%. In December, the CPI of food decreased by 1.2% year-on-year, 2.8pct lower than that in November.
Baijiu in the Spring Festival peak season dynamic overall situation is stable, high-end, secondary high-end is more robust, regional differentiation, emblem, wine and wine show bright. Beer manufacturers steadily raise prices in the off-season, which is conducive to buffering cost pressure and improving performance; The demand of dairy enterprises has recovered steadily and the competition continues to slow down. It is expected that the profits will be released after the cost pressure is relieved. Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (600519, buy) is recommended for high-end wines, and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) (002304, buy) and Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (000596, buy) are recommended for regional famous wines that are less affected by the epidemic and have better dynamic sales. Dairy products focus on structural upgrading, white milk demand is improving, competition is slowing down, and domestic cheese leader Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) (600882, buy); The structural upgrading, pattern improvement and cost control and efficiency increase trend of beer sector continue. It is recommended to pay attention to Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) (600600, overweight) and Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (600132, not rated).
Risk tips
The economic downturn has led to a decline in demand and food safety problems. Investment proposal and investment object
