Copper and aluminum prices rose, and rare earth oxide prices continued to rise
Copper: Although the Federal Reserve recently released hawkish signals to the market, considering the low inventory and stable growth expectations, copper prices are still supported. Follow Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) . As of February 9, Shanghai copper reported a closing of 70450 yuan / ton, a change of 0.23% compared with that before the festival; The inventory closed at 244.64 million tons, an increase of 61.76% compared with that before the festival.
Aluminum: affected by the overseas energy crisis, the production reduction in the international market is expected to continue, the inventory replenishment speed is slow, and the aluminum price continues to rise. As of February 9, Shanghai aluminum reported 22870 yuan / ton, a change of 4.19% compared with that before the festival; The inventory received 145132 yuan / ton, a change of 1.65% compared with that before the festival. The profit of electrolytic aluminum industry remained high due to the rise of aluminum price. Follow Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Rare earth permanent magnet: the price of rare earth oxide continued to rise this week. As of February 9, praseodymium oxide (lowest price) closed at 943000 yuan / ton, a change of 0.75% compared with that before the festival; Neodymium oxide (lowest price) closed at 1077000, an increase of 3.06% compared with that before the festival; Praseodymium neodymium oxide (lowest price) closed at 963000 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.67% compared with that before the festival; Dysprosium oxide (lowest price) closed at 3010 yuan / ton, unchanged during the week; Terbium oxide (lowest price) closed at 13630 yuan / ton, a change of 0.44% compared with that before the festival. The rare earth industry is in a new growth cycle, and the price is expected to continue the rising trend of the beginning of the year. The rare earth industry has undergone fundamental changes in terms of supply and demand. The orderly and highly centralized supply pattern in China and the stabilization of global supply have reduced the supply elasticity. It is estimated that the annual rare earth mining and smelting index in 2022 will be about 202000 tons, an increase of about 20% year-on-year. In terms of demand, under the background of global low-carbon and electrification, new energy vehicles, improved energy efficiency of industrial motors, wind power, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) have replaced consumer electronics as the main driving force of rare earth permanent magnet demand, resulting in a leap in magnitude. We expect the average annual compound growth rate to be about 26% from 2022 to 25. Follow Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) .
Risk tip: the global economic recovery is less than expected; US inflation remains high; The production and sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected; The energy crisis eased more than expected; The demand for magnetic materials is less than expected; Rapid recovery of supply in Myanmar; Power rationing less than expected
