The securities industry lost in January. Ranked 16th among the 28 Shenwan industry indexes, the securities sector fell 8.53% in January, 0.89 percentage points lower than the Shanghai Composite Index and 0.91 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index.
The valuation of listed securities companies was basically flat compared with last month. As of January 28, the Pb valuation of listed securities companies was 1.46 times (historical TTM, median, excluding negative values, the same below), a decrease of 0.16 times compared with the end of December, and 1.62 times as of December 31, 2021. On January 28, the valuation was in the last 4% of the history, and the median valuation of historical Pb was 2.58 times. The valuation of Pb of large securities companies is 1.41 times (8% quantile after History), and the valuation of Pb of small and medium-sized securities companies is 1.46 times (6% quantile after History).
It is expected that the performance of bond business in 2021 will be optimistic. According to wind data statistics, up to now, 35 securities companies have released performance forecasts, performance letters or unaudited financial reports of the parent company. Among the 35 securities companies that have disclosed their performance, 30 securities companies have shown positive growth, accounting for 85.71%. There are 9 securities companies with net profit growth of more than 50%, including Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (22.979 billion yuan / 54%), Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) (1.645-1.865 billion yuan / 50% – 70%), Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) (5-5.6 billion yuan / 85% – 105%), Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) (3.5 billion yuan / 50%) and 5 small and medium-sized securities companies, including Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) (480-560 million yuan / 360% – 437%). There are 7 securities companies whose net profit growth rate is in the range of 30% – 50%. Based on the disclosed performance at present, we expect the overall stable growth of the securities industry in 2021, and the overall performance of the performance is relatively optimistic.
Maintain the rating of “leading market” in the industry. On the main line of investment, we suggest paying attention to the three main lines of high-quality head securities companies and securities companies with prominent advantages in wealth management and leading investment banking business. Investment main line 1: focus on the head securities companies with stable operation, strong capital strength and obvious policy advantages. Recommend Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (600030. SH) and pay attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (601995. SH). Investment mainline 2: focus on securities companies that comply with the transformation and development of wealth management. Recommend China stock market news (300059. SZ), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) (601688. SH), Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) (600958. SH). Investment main line 3: it is suggested to pay attention to China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) (601066. SH), which is leading in investment banking business and ranks in the forefront of the new third board.
Risk warning: the market trading activity is low; The market fluctuates greatly; The business development of securities companies is not as expected; Strengthening financial supervision policies; The progress of capital market reform was lower than expected.
