The proportion of heavy positions rebounded sharply in the fourth quarter, and the sector continued to exceed the allocation level. Considering that there are certain differences in the classification of color codes in the market, this report selects the classification standard of core standards according to Guosheng nonferrous metals. According to the data, the total market value of the top ten heavy positions in Q4 nonferrous metal sector was 132.6 billion yuan, an increase of more than 40% month on month; The proportion of heavy positions increased significantly from 3.55% in the third quarter to 5.04%, and the proportion of over allocation increased from – 0.25% to 1.84%, continuing the level of over allocation. In terms of sections, the proportion of heavy positions in lithium nickel cobalt EV metal sector rebounded from 2.03% in the third quarter to 2.49% month on month, continuing the over allocation; New nonferrous materials received new attention, and the heavy warehouse ratio increased from 0 to 0.23%; The margin of heavy warehouse ratio of aluminum, precious metals and rare earth magnetic materials improved, with aluminum rising to a small over allocation market; The heavy position ratio of copper sector decreased slightly from 0.65% to 0.51%.
EV metal fund concentrated on increasing its holdings, and the attention of non-ferrous new materials increased. In terms of individual stock positions in large sectors, the proportion of heavy positions of funds is high, and the stocks are still concentrated in lithium nickel cobalt EV metal sector. Among them, the proportion of heavy positions of Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) funds exceeds 10%, and the proportion of Q4 positions still rises; In addition, copper foil concept stocks are still favored, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) fund positions exceed Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , ranking the top two in the copper sector; The proportion of heavy positions of Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) funds with aluminum sheet, strip and foil is as high as 18.1%, which continues to rank first in the non-ferrous metal sector; The overall attention of Q4 of new nonferrous materials has increased, and the position ratio of companies such as Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) , China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co.Ltd(000657) has exceeded 5%. The fund positions of gold and rare earth magnetic materials are low as a whole, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) ranked first respectively.
The enthusiasm of lithium nickel cobalt sector configuration is not reduced, and the target of the sector is in full bloom. Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) heat continued, and heavy positions continued to increase month on month, ranking the top two in the sector; The heavy warehouse ratio of Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) and Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) increased significantly from Q3 less than 1% to 8.0% and 5.4% respectively; Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) obtained a centralized increase in fund holdings, and the heavy position ratio rose from 0 to 17.4%; Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) is still the preferred enterprise in the sector, with heavy positions up 3.8% to 15.7% month on month; Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) Q4 also increased their holdings to 6.8% / 5.4% / 4.6%, of which the heavy position ratio of Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) Q3 is less than 1%.
Copper and aluminum leading stocks are concentrated on reducing positions, and many new materials stocks have received new attention. Individual leading stocks in the copper aluminum sector are favored, and the alpha effect of the sector is prominent. The heavy position ratio of Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) and Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ranked first in the copper aluminum sector, but the heavy position ratio of Q4 fund decreased significantly. Q4 market attention shifted from upstream core resources to downstream new metal materials, subdivided into high growth tracks, and the heavy position ratio of multi stock funds such as Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) , China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co.Ltd(000657) , Sino-Platinum Metals Co.Ltd(600459) increased from 0 to 8.6% / 6.1% / 5.5% / 3.2% respectively.
Investment suggestion: the prosperity of new energy continues upward, and it is suggested to continue to allocate EV upstream sector; The supply and demand pattern of electrolytic aluminum has been improving for a long time, the competition pattern of aluminum processing industry has been optimized, and the leading enterprises are expected to accelerate their growth: (1) the production capacity of ores and salt lakes outside China is concentrated and the spot supply is limited, the supply and demand structure continues to be tight, and the price of lithium salt is expected to remain high. It is expected that the annual average price of lithium resources will continue to fall to {3.902 million tons / year, and the average price of lithium resources is expected to fall to {3.902 million tons / year; (2) Under the long-term path of “ceiling” and “carbon peak” of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, aluminum price and profit per ton of aluminum are expected to remain high. After long-term competition, the aluminum processing industry has entered a mature period. With the growth of high-end demand, refined cost control and the continuous highlighting of scale effect, the industrial competition barriers are gradually rising, and the market share of leading enterprises is expected to continue to increase. It is suggested to pay attention to: Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) .
Risk tip: demand growth is less than expected; Commodity price fluctuation risk.
