In the second half of 2021, after the rapid cooling of the national real estate market, the policy environment has gradually improved, especially the reasonable capital needs of enterprises and residents are being met, and the sentiment of home buyers has improved slightly. In the past two months, the monetary policy has continued to make efforts to comprehensively reduce the reserve requirements and interest rates to stabilize the market expectations. There are still expectations of reducing the reserve requirements and interest rates in the short-term market. The improvement of the capital side will play a positive role in the smooth operation of the real estate market. From the perspective of market recovery, the market of some hot cities has shown signs of stabilizing, but the adjustment trend of most cities is still deepening. Around the Spring Festival in 2022, analysts from all over the China Index Research Institute formed a series of regional real estate market observation reports by observing the latest changes in the local real estate market for enterprises’ reference.
The overall resilience of the real estate market in the Yangtze River Delta is high. It is expected to recover gradually after the market cools down. In 2021, the overall transaction scale of hot first and second tier cities such as Shanghai and Hangzhou has reached the highest level in the same period in history, but the short-term inventory of most cities is insufficient, and the increase of land transaction volume will support the supply side of new houses in the future. In 2022, with the increasing expectation of policy easing, the gradual improvement of credit environment and the gradual recovery of market sentiment, it is expected that the short-term market will continue to adjust. However, based on good urban fundamentals, the market scale in 2022 is still expected to remain high.
In 2021, the real estate market in the Pearl River Delta showed a trend from high fever to rapid cooling, with significant urban differentiation. At the same time, with the support of credit policies, many cities have turned tail at the end of the year. Looking forward to 2022, under the background of the central government adhering to the principle of “no speculation in housing and housing” and ensuring the reasonable purchase demand of residents, there is room for fine-tuning the policy. However, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Dongguan may maintain the existing more stringent regulation and control policies, while other cities remain stable and loose. The land market will continue to operate at a low level under the background of tight funds of real estate enterprises. With the support of credit policy, the trading volume of the new housing market will gradually pick up, reflecting strong resilience.
In the second half of 2021, the market in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region cooled rapidly, the market entered the adjustment period, and customers’ wait-and-see mood increased. At the end of the year, although real estate enterprises increased preferential efforts and actively marketing, the market transaction scale did not improve significantly, and the power to restore confidence in the market was insufficient. In 2022, the overall market adjustment trend of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei may continue, but the differentiation trend is more obvious. Driven by the improvement of the supply side of Beijing’s real estate market, the market heat is expected to recover at the bottom, and the transaction scale may remain high; The adjustment pressure of Tianjin market is bigger at present, and the moderate adjustment policy is expected to stabilize market expectation. After years of in-depth adjustment in Hebei cities, the short-term market sentiment is relatively low, the supporting factors of house purchase demand are relatively weak, and it still takes time for the market to restore confidence.
The current policy bottom of Shandong region is gradually emerging, the credit environment continues to improve, and the market expectation is expected to gradually recover. It is expected that the real estate market in Shandong region will still be stable in 2022, but the differentiation of the real estate market will further intensify, the trend of purchasing power gathering to high-energy cities will not change, and some third and fourth tier cities with high inventory pressure will still be under pressure.
In the medium and long term, with the promotion of the central rise strategy, the core cities in the central region still have a certain growth space and still have strong investment attraction. However, it is expected that the market differentiation among cities will still be obvious in 2022. Wuhan has a large potential supply scale and fierce market competition, but the market demand is sufficient and will still maintain a high-scale transaction. The land transaction in Changsha in 2021 will promote the transaction in the commercial housing market to maintain a high level, but the market competition pressure is increasing. Nanchang’s market capacity and heat are not high, and the potential supply contraction may have a great impact on the transactions in 2022. Zhengzhou market is still running at a low temperature, buyers lack confidence in home ownership, and the short-term market recovery power is relatively weak.
In 2021, the property market differentiation in Southwest China intensified. As the polar core cities of Chengdu Chongqing economic circle, Chengdu and Chongqing have relatively strong market pressure resistance. Looking forward to 2022, with the expectation of relaxing the policy strategy of real estate regulation, the real estate market in Southwest China will still show a rational return trend, but the regional differentiation of cities will continue, and the market resistance of polar core cities will still exist.
In 2021, affected by short-term policy regulation, epidemic spread and other factors, the performance of the property market in Northwest China basically tends to decline. In 2022, facing the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation, the road to recovery of Northwest property market is blocked and long. In the future, under the background of the central government’s frequent release of market stability maintenance signals, all localities will implement policies according to the city in combination with the market situation, so as to find a new balance between ensuring economic growth and preventing the risks of the real estate market.
