\u3000\u3000 Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) (601006)
Key investment points
The wrong time of Spring Festival led to a decrease of 8.22% in the traffic volume of Daqin line in January
In January, the average daily transportation volume of Daqin line was 1.0987 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.22%. We judge that it is mainly due to the early arrival of the lunar calendar date of the Spring Festival in 2022 compared with 2021, and the early entry of coal transportation into the off-season. With the continuous promotion of coal supply and price stability at the policy end, the transportation volume of Daqin line is expected to be repaired after the Spring Festival. It is suggested to pay attention to the total daily average transportation volume of Daqin line from January to February.
It is estimated that the transportation volume of Daqin line will continue to recover to 430-440 million tons in 2022
On the supply side, the China coal transportation and Marketing Association issued a notice on stable supply of coal in the first quarter on January 30, requiring all enterprises to reasonably arrange production and daily maintenance during the Spring Festival holiday, so as to ensure the stable supply of coal during the Spring Festival, Beijing Winter Olympic Games, winter Paralympic Games and the "two sessions"; The national development and Reform Commission held a video conference on the afternoon of February 9 to deploy the work of ensuring the supply and price of coal and promote coal enterprises to speed up the resumption of work and production.
On the transportation side, China Railway Group will continue to promote the special action of ensuring the supply of electricity and coal, and will continue to deepen the incremental action of railway freight transportation in 2022, further promote the adjustment of bulk transportation structure, and drive the coal transportation to continue to transfer from highway to railway.
On the whole, driven by the recovery of the epidemic situation, the reduction of accidental factors and the expectation of infrastructure development, we expect that the traffic volume of Daqin line is expected to maintain a steady growth in 2022, or further recover to 430-440 million tons.
The impact of environmental protection policies is slight and the margin is loose, and there is still room for the long-term improvement of the traffic volume of Daqin line
On February 7, the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the iron and steel industry proposed that the carbon peak of the iron and steel industry should be reached by 2030, five years later than the original exposure draft. In terms of total amount, coal is still China's necessary main energy for a specific period of time. In the long run, the transportation volume of Daqin line is still supported by "three layers of safety cushion": 1) the coal source structure is adjusted, the coal producing areas continue to concentrate in the three West regions, and the regional advantages are consolidated Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) the moat of the main industry; 2) The adjustment of transportation structure, the continuous promotion of public rail transit, and the cooperation between the State Railway Group and local governments and enterprises to promote the incremental action of railway freight; 3) The diversion of competitive lines is weak. Compared with the four main lines of West to east coal transportation, the transportation cost advantage of Daqin line still exists. With the centralized coal source, the transfer of bulk transportation to railway and the resonance of low transportation cost, the Daqin line has sufficient guarantee on the demand side.
Absolute amount dividend commitment decoupling profit, under cautious expectation or both absolute and relative returns
According to the dividend return plan of the company from 2020 to 2022, the annual cash dividend per share shall not be less than 0.48 yuan / share. The company's dividend will reach 10.09% at the end of 2024, with an absolute dividend yield of 65.02% at the end of 2024, which corresponds to the company's dividend yield of 10.09% at the end of 2024. Based on stable performance growth and high dividend defense, it is recommended to pay attention to the steady allocation value of the company under the cautious expectation of the market.
Profit forecast and valuation
Assuming that the traffic volume of Datong Qinhuangdao railway increases steadily, without considering the adjustment of freight rate, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 12.212 billion yuan, 13.526 billion yuan and 13.808 billion yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023. In addition, the company's current Pb (LF) is only 0.86 times, with sufficient safety margin and deterministic dividend income bottom, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
