\u3000\u3000 Zhongji Innolight Co.Ltd(300308) (300308)
Core view
On January 27, the company released the performance forecast for 2021: the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 was RMB 800-940 million, an increase of - 7.57% - 8.61% over the same period of last year; The basic earnings per share is 1.09 yuan / share - 1.29 yuan / share.
The net profit related to the company's main business maintained a steady growth, but affected by the implementation of the stock incentive plan, the company's confirmed investment income and the reduction of government subsidies, the company's consolidated net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be flat compared with the same period last year. (1) The company implemented the second phase of restricted stock incentive plan and granted a total of 9999000 restricted shares to incentive objects in December 2020 and February 2021 respectively. During the reporting period, due to the confirmation of equity incentive expenses, the consolidated net profit of the company decreased by about 57 million yuan compared with the same period last year. (2) During the reporting period, the investment income and government subsidies recognized by the company decreased by about 74 million yuan compared with the same period last year.
The production capacity of high-end optical modules has continued to grow. In July 2021, Anhui Tongling optical module industrial park construction project and 400g optical communication module expansion project were concluded. The production capacity of 400g and other high-end products of the company was significantly improved, further consolidating the company's leading position in the field of high-end optical modules.
The demand for overseas high-end products remained good, and the Chinese market improved. Driven by the growth of global traffic, data centers outside China continue to increase capital expenditure and accelerate the deployment of high-end optical modules represented by 400g / 200g. As a leading supplier, the company's shipments of 400g and other high-end products continued to grow. 400g products have occupied the primary sales proportion, and the company's revenue continued to grow in 2021
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
The company implemented the stock incentive plan in 2021, and we raised the company's management expenses for 21 years. At the same time, the company confirmed that the amount of investment income and government subsidies decreased, and we lowered the company's investment income and other income for 21 years. To sum up, we adjusted the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company for 21-23 years to 938 / 1253 / 1445 million yuan (the original forecast value of net profit attributable to the parent company was 1003 / 1253 / 1446 million yuan).
By adopting the relative valuation method, the average price earnings ratio of the company after adjustment is 33 times that of 2021, corresponding to the target price of 38.70 yuan in 2021, and it is given a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The capital expenditure of cloud manufacturers is lower than expected; Sino US trade friction intensifies; The R & D and sales process of new products is less than expected; The production capacity construction progress is less than expected
