\u3000\u3000 Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.Ltd(300394) (300394)
The performance continued to grow steadily, with significant year-on-year improvement in the fourth quarter. The company released the performance express of 2021. In 2021, the annual revenue was 1.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 310 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the revenue in a single quarter was 280 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29%. The net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was close to 100 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 49%. Compared with the third quarter of 2021, it increased by 28% year-on-year.
The demand of the industry fluctuated in 2021, especially the demand of Chinese operators slowed down in the first three quarters of 2021, which affected the company's product sales to a certain extent. At the same time, superimposed on the high boom and high base of the industry in short supply in 2020, the profit of 2021q2 / 2021q3 decreased year-on-year in the single quarter, and recovered to the fourth quarter, the profit side of the company improved significantly, thanks to the obvious increase in the demand of the optical parts industry (Chinese operators / overseas digital communications), and the impact of the rise in the price of upstream raw materials is declining day by day. At the same time, the expansion of revenue scale also led to the dilution of operating costs. The net interest rate in Q4 of 2021 recovered to 34%, an increase of nearly 7 percentage points compared with the third quarter of 2021.
The demand continues to improve, and the endogenous expansion category is progressing smoothly. The downstream of the company faces the optical communication industry. With the construction of 5g / data center, the sales scale of the company's optical communication devices is expected to continue to expand. The future development of the company is not completely limited to optical module / optical communication: with excellent precision manufacturing / cost control / supply chain management capabilities, the company is expected to expand its business scope in the future, penetrate into industries such as lidar / medical testing, and open the growth ceiling.
The industrial pattern is still good. The demand of the company's optical passive components industry increases with the demand of downstream optical modules and related equipment, which is consistent with the long-term flow trend. On the supply side, the number of new entrants is limited, and many of them are small manufacturers. The industry process / cost control / channel threshold is high, and the company is expected to continue to absorb share through the one-stop plan of transformation.
At the same time, we predict that the division of labor in the optical module industry may be further clarified in the future, and the industrial division of labor will be obvious. Tianfu's one-stop procurement solution can effectively help optical module manufacturers reduce the threshold of asset investment and the difficulty of supply chain management. In the future, the penetration rate is expected to gradually increase and the growth potential is huge.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.1/4.4/560 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.79/1.11/1.44 yuan, and the current share price corresponding to PE of 43 / 30 / 23 times respectively. Considering the high prospect of optical communication and the certainty of the company's growth, the "buy" rating will be maintained.
Risk warning: the expansion of new product line is not as expected; The optical communication market is cold, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is insufficient; The price fluctuation of product line continues.
