\u3000\u3000 Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) (300618)
Cut into the precursor track and build an integrated industrial chain. The company built 26000 tons of Sanyuan 811 precursor in Ganzhou, cut into the new energy track and vertically build the integration of industrial chain. We believe that the company's layout precursor will help to enhance the added value of products and open up the company's market space.
Resources + precursors have the strongest profitability, and Hanrui has significant advantages in its own cobalt resources. Among the precursor materials, the cost of nickel cobalt lithium accounts for 90%. China's enterprises with integrated industrial chain, such as Huayou and Gem Co.Ltd(002340) , rely on the cost control of the resource side, and the gross profit margin is higher than that of enterprises only as precursors. Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange, and plans to rely on its own cobalt resources to continuously explore the upstream nickel cobalt lithium overseas resources, cut into the precursor industrial chain from the resource side and reduce production costs. Compared with Huayou and Gem Co.Ltd(002340) enterprises with resources, Hanrui's profitability can be expected in the future.
The prosperity of the industry is high, the volume and price of copper and cobalt products rise together, and the performance of the company doubled. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 600-700 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 79.37% - 109.27%. The increase is mainly due to the release of production capacity of the company's Kolwezi project and the growth of cobalt demand in the new energy vehicle industry, and the volume and price of the company's Cobalt and copper products rise at the same time.
Hanrui's production capacity has entered the centralized release period, and it is expected that the cobalt salt will increase by 10000 tons in 2022. (1) The 20000 ton electrodeposited copper project invested by the company in koluwezi has been put into operation, and 6000 tons of electrolytic copper and 5000 tons of cobalt hydroxide will be added in the transformation of production line. (2) Ganzhou Hanrui is building a project with an annual output of 10000 tons of metal cobalt salt and 26000 tons of precursors. It is expected that 7000 tons of cobalt salt in phase I will be put into operation in 2022, and 3000 tons of cobalt salt and 26000 tons of 811 precursors in phase II will be put into operation in 2023.
Cobalt: the production capacity of mudanta is restored, and the high nickel of battery does not change the high demand for cobalt for new energy. Supply: mutanda project will resume production in early 2022. ERG's RTR tailings project and lomo TFM are expanding production. It is estimated that the global cobalt output will be 180000 tons in 2022. Demand: the output of precursors and cathode materials in China has maintained rapid growth, and the cobalt consumption of new energy vehicles has continued to increase.
Copper: strong consumption in China is expected to support copper prices. Supply: it is estimated that in 2022, the global copper concentrate increment will be 650000 tons, and the copper concentrate shortage will be 170000 tons. Consumption: in 2021, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 11% year-on-year, and the demand for copper from power grid investment was strong. Cars and real estate have also begun to improve, and China's consumption is stable and good, which is expected to support copper prices.
Investment suggestion: we expect that 2022-2023 will be the centralized release period of the company's production capacity. The commissioning of keluwezi, Ganzhou Hanrui and other projects will drive the continuous improvement of the company's performance. In terms of industry, copper and cobalt are still in short supply, and copper and cobalt prices are expected to remain high. Therefore, we expect the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 to reach 677 / 1308 / 1528 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 2.24/4.32/5.05 yuan and PE of 32.54/16.85/14.42 times. For the first time, it is rated "buy", with a target price of 108 yuan.
Risk warning: cobalt price fluctuation; Epidemic risk; The progress of the project invested with raised funds under construction is less than expected.
