\u3000\u3000 China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) (601808)
Backed by CNOOC, offshore oil and gas service leader
China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) is subordinate to China National Offshore Oil Corporation. It is a leading company in China’s offshore oil and gas services. Its business covers four major sectors: oilfield technical services, drilling services, ship services, geophysical exploration and acquisition and engineering survey services, with an integrated service chain. Benefiting from the fact that the crude oil price is higher than the comfort zone, the overseas oil service market is expected to enter a recovery period in 2022. China benefits from the steady increase in the certainty of “three barrels of oil” capital expenditure under the national energy security strategy, and the company is expected to enter a period of profit flexibility release.
The oil technology business is upgraded to light assets and heavy technology
The company has increased its independent R & D capability and achieved a number of technical achievements by promoting the technology of key core projects, so that the oilfield technical service sector with technical added value can effectively resist the risk of periodic fluctuation and achieve the strategic deployment of cost reduction and efficiency increase. After years of development, the oilfield service technology sector of the company has made a major breakthrough in the autonomy of key technologies and equipment, has broken the overseas monopoly and won a place in the global market.
The performance elasticity of drilling services in the recovery period is large
The company’s drilling service relies on its own platform and has obvious asset value attribute. From 2020 to 2021, affected by the epidemic, the utilization rate of the platform decreased, while the daily fee was still low. As the oil price rises, the recovery of overseas oil service industry accelerates, and the profit elasticity of the company will be gradually released. From a longer time dimension, the improvement of platform utilization will help the daily fee enter the upward channel and further open the profit space.
China’s offshore oil and gas development has great potential and sustainability
From China’s perspective, the rising dependence on crude oil and natural gas is more than 70% and 40%, so it is urgent to ensure national energy security. Driven by the “seven-year action plan”, the “three barrels of oil” have increased capital expenditure. CNOOC expects to double the workload and proved reserves by 2025, of which the proved reserves will exceed 5 billion barrels. China’s offshore oil and gas resources have great exploitation potential and sustainability. China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) as the leader of offshore oil and gas production services, it occupies the advantages of technology and scale, and has strong profit elasticity in the recovery period of global oil service.
Profit forecast
It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 29.3 billion yuan, 35.3 billion yuan and 40.5 billion yuan respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 462 million yuan, 3.8 billion yuan and 5.56 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the current dynamic P / E ratio of 162 times, 20 times and 14 times respectively. It is covered for the first time and given a “recommended” rating.
Risk tips
Risk of large fluctuations in oil prices; The prosperity recovery of overseas oil service is less than expected; CNOOC’s capital expenditure growth was lower than expected; Risks of overseas business affected by political and economic environment, etc.
