\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) (605128)
Key investment points
Deep strategic cooperation, Dongfeng Lear series, deep cultivation of automobile seat frame system
Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) is the leader of automobile seat frame. It has deep strategic cooperation with Dongfeng lear. In 2020, Dongfeng Lear's revenue accounted for 45.50%. The company's dominant product is automobile seat frame assembly. With years of R & D investment and customer resource accumulation, the company's seat frame business has strong market competitiveness and brand influence. The market share of automobile seat frame assembly will be about 6% in 2020.
It is expected that the market will be divided into five hundred million independent manufacturers
In the past, foreign-funded head seat assembly suppliers established joint ventures with China's old vehicle manufacturers to independently produce front seat frames with high technical barriers. Therefore, the seat assembly and frame market were monopolized by the same batch of foreign-funded head enterprises. In the era of electric intelligence, the acceleration of vehicle model iteration has greatly improved the requirements of vehicle enterprises for the response service efficiency of parts enterprises, and the solidified industrial division of labor in the past is expected to be broken. Considering the cost and response efficiency, vehicle enterprises choose seat suppliers through market competition, forcing head seat assembly manufacturers to outsource the front seat frame business, and the seat frame industry has ushered in reshaping, Local seat frame manufacturers are expected to rise and carve up 50 billion Chinese seat frame market.
Product upgrading and domestic substitution usher in the simultaneous rise of volume and price
Price increase: from 2018 to 2020, the company mainly supported the rear seat assembly, with ASP of 335-341 yuan. In 2021, the company received orders for a full set of seat assemblies from Xiaokang and great wall, and the value of a single car increased nearly eight times.
Volume increase: compared with international manufacturers, the company has high response efficiency and cost advantages; Compared with Chinese manufacturers, the company previously cooperated deeply with Dongfeng Lear series, with mature process technology and rich mass production experience. It is one of the few suppliers in China with the ability to produce front and rear seat frame assemblies, and is expected to benefit from the opportunity of seat frame localization / outsourcing.
Long term R & D and technology accumulation, and fruitful horizontal expansion
The company has long-term technical reserves to expand its business in the three power fields and other relevant directions, including safety systems, automobile door models, new energy vehicles and other subdivided fields. The company will support the battery pack shell of jinkangxilis new energy vehicle, gearbox lead frame components of tank 500 / 600, electric pedal components and other products, expand multi-point business and core business simultaneously, and further open the growth space.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 800 / 12.8 / 1.97 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 0.62% / 61.27% / 53.50%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 0.7/1.4/220 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 19.71% / 111.14% / 61.95%, EPS was RMB 0.82/1.72/2.79/share, corresponding to 46 / 22 / 13 times of PE, and was rated as "buy".
Risk tips
The prosperity of the automobile industry is less than expected; The passenger acquisition progress of seat frame is less than expected; The sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The price of raw materials has risen sharply
