\u3000\u3000 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750)
Events
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) announcement: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 14-16.5 billion yuan, yoy + 151% – 196%, and the net profit deducted from the non parent company is expected to be 12-14 billion yuan, yoy + 181% – 228%.
Key investment points
Beautiful performance, leading power battery industry
The company is the world’s leading supplier of lithium batteries. It continuously arranges materials and other core links around lithium batteries to ensure its global supply chain competitiveness. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.2-8.7 billion yuan in 2021q4, yoy + 178% – 291%, QoQ + 90% – 166%; It is estimated that 2021q4 will realize a net profit of 5.4-7 billion yuan, yoy + 101% – 176%, QoQ + 101% – 176%. The performance is eye-catching and exceeds the market expectation.
According to sneresearch data, the installed capacity of the company’s power battery ranked first in the world in 2021, with a total of 97gwh / yoy + 168%; The global market share is 33% / yoy + 8pct. Significantly exceed the installed capacity of LGC by 60gwh / yoy + 76%; The global market share is 20% / yoy-3pct. Panasonic, BYD and SK ranked third to fifth respectively, accounting for 12%, 9% and 6% of the global market.
On the whole, the company’s performance is eye-catching, the global market share has increased significantly, and its leading position in the global power battery has been continuously consolidated through technology, product iteration, cost advantage and other dimensions. We believe that the company is expected to continue to lead the industry with its strong technology and cost advantages.
Global capacity expansion and profound industrial chain layout
The company actively expands production capacity, has abundant cash flow and continues to block the industrial chain. The company’s production capacity is expected to exceed 200gwh by the end of 2021, 400gwh by the end of 2022 and 700gwh by 2025. We expect that the company’s lithium battery shipment will be about 130gwh in 2021 and is expected to more than double in 2022. The company has carefully and deeply arranged the industrial chain to expand its core competitive advantage. Through joint venture, acquisition, strategic cooperation and other means, the company has achieved the support and guarantee of many suppliers of raw materials and equipment such as cathode (Bangpu, Germany, rongbai, Yunneng, etc.), diaphragm (Enjie, etc.), electrolyte (Tianci, Yongtai, shishishikang), cathode (Shangtai), copper foil (Jinmei, Jiayuan), lithium ( Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) ), equipment ( Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) ), In order to ensure the security of the supply chain and expand the cost advantage. At the same time, the company actively laid out application fields such as power exchange and energy storage to realize the in-depth layout of the industrial chain.
Deeply cultivate the lithium golden track to highlight the competitive advantage
The company is deeply engaged in the lithium battery gold track, deeply covering application scenarios such as electric vehicles, energy storage and power exchange, with huge growth space in the future. In terms of technology, the company actively iterates around iron lithium and high nickel products, optimizes product performance, widens track, adds sodium battery and other new technology paths. Focusing on the four innovation systems of materials, systems, manufacturing and business model, the company focuses on the technical innovation of high specific energy (cell energy density up to 330wh / kg), long life (life up to 16 years or 2 million kilometers), ultra fast charging (up to 80% in 5 minutes), high safety, automatic temperature control and intelligent management, with remarkable results.
We believe that the company’s R & D strength and technical reserve are leading in the industry, and actively promote the innovative applications of CTP / CTC, high voltage, high nickel technology and pet copper foil. The company creates three platforms of material innovation, product innovation and intelligent innovation, and constantly promotes the renewal and iteration of products. Focusing on the three strategic directions of “realizing the replacement of fixed fossil energy with renewable energy and energy storage as the core”, “realizing the replacement of mobile fossil energy with power battery as the core” and “realizing the integrated innovation of market application with electrification + intelligence as the core”, we will continue to promote the reform of the industry and achieve high-speed growth.
Profit forecast
Based on the principle of prudence, the impact of additional issuance on performance and share capital will not be considered for the time being. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 15.3/28/42.7 billion yuan, EPS will be 6.56/12.02/18.29 yuan and PE will be 79 / 43 / 28 times respectively. Based on the company’s high-quality track, comprehensive customer coverage and global leading competitive advantage, we are optimistic about the company’s medium and long-term upward development opportunities and give a “recommended” rating.
Risk tips
Policy fluctuation risk; Downstream demand is lower than expected; The product price is lower than expected; Risk of deterioration of competition pattern; Capacity expansion and digestion are not as expected; The progress of additional issuance was less than expected.
