Medical service II fell 5.75% in the last trading week
Last trading week, pharmaceutical biology closed at 9684.57 points, down 6.83%, ranking 28th in Shenwan industry, with the highest decline. The CSI 300 fell by 4.51%, and the pharmaceutical industry underperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.32%; Medical service II closed at 9590.72 points, down 5.75%; Traditional Chinese Medicine II closed at 7281.45, down 7.08%; Chemical pharmaceutical closed at 10743.04 points, down 8.26%; Biological products II closed at 10233.14 points, down 5.42%; Pharmaceutical Business II closed at 5722.88 points, down 6.46%; Medical device II closed at 8675.24 points, down 7.00%; From the characteristics of rise and fall, the overall biomedical sector generally fell, and the decline of medical services was lower.
Medical service PE (TTM) decreased by 3.41 month on month, and Pb (LF) decreased by 0.43 month on month
At present, the PE of medical service sector is 55.83, the maximum value of PE in recent year is 185.47, and the minimum value is 55.76; The current Pb is 7.11, the maximum value of Pb in recent years is 14.47, and the minimum value is 7.10. PE in the medical service sector decreased by 3.41 month on month, Pb decreased by 0.43 month on month, and PE and Pb in the medical service sector were at the bottom level in recent one year. The premium rate of medical service sector relative to CSI 300 valuation is 334.67%. Although the valuation of the medical service sector is still high statically, considering the high performance growth of specialized hospitals and CXO industry related companies, the good development trend of the industry and policy immunity, the current valuation is more reasonable.
Important information
The 14th five year plan for the development of pharmaceutical industry was issued, with an average annual increase of more than 10% in R & D investment. On January 30, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission and other nine departments jointly issued the 14th five year plan for the development of pharmaceutical industry. The plan proposes that in terms of benefits, during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate of operating revenue and total profit of the pharmaceutical industry will be maintained at more than 8%, the proportion of added value in all industries will be increased to about 5%, and the concentration of leading enterprises in the industry will be further improved. In terms of innovation, the target is that the R & D investment of the whole industry will increase by more than 10% annually; By 2025, the proportion of new sales of innovative products in the increment of operating revenue of the whole industry will further increase; In terms of supply guarantee, the supply of drugs, vaccines, protective materials and diagnosis and treatment equipment for major diseases is sufficient, and the medical reserve system has been improved; The supply of essential drugs, minor drugs and drugs that are easy to be in short supply is stable, and the guarantee ability of a number of clinically urgently needed drugs for children and rare diseases is enhanced.
This week’s view
The 14th five year plan for the development of pharmaceutical industry summarizes the problems existing in the field of pharmaceutical industry in the past, and puts forward corresponding key tasks for the corresponding problems: 1) accelerate product innovation and industrialization technology breakthrough. 2) Enhance the stability and competitiveness of the industrial chain. 3) Enhance the ability of supply guarantee. 4) Promote the upgrading of pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity system. 5) Create new advantages in international competition.
The plan puts forward specific objectives, and the revenue, profit and R & D investment of the pharmaceutical industry are expected to grow steadily. According to the development goal of the 14th five year plan, the average annual growth rate of the total revenue and profit of the pharmaceutical industry will remain above 8%, and the proportion of added value in all industries will increase to about 5%; The concentration of industry leading enterprises was further improved; The R & D investment of the whole industry has increased by more than 10% annually; By 2025, the proportion of new sales of innovative products in the increment of operating revenue of the whole industry will further increase. We believe that the sustained and steady growth of the revenue and net profit of the pharmaceutical industry will become an important support for pharmaceutical innovation investment. Under the goal of an average annual growth of more than 10% of the R & D investment of the whole industry, it is expected that the enthusiasm of pharmaceutical industry enterprises for pharmaceutical R & D investment will continue to rise, which is conducive to the development of companies related to the innovation Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain.
In the basic principles of the overall requirements of the plan, we can see that innovation still occupies an important position. The basic principles require adhering to innovation leadership: take innovation as the core task of promoting the high-quality development of the pharmaceutical industry, and accelerate the implementation of the innovation driven development strategy. Specifically: 1) vigorously promote the research and development of innovative products. Promote enterprises to focus on the unmet clinical needs, increase investment and carry out the development of innovative products. Support enterprises based on local resources and advantages, face the global market, focus on new targets and new mechanism drugs, carry out R & D layout, and actively lead innovation. Promote the innovation of traditional Chinese medicine, and develop new traditional Chinese medicine drugs that adapt to the clinical positioning of traditional Chinese medicine and reflect its functional characteristics and advantages. Improve the clinical value oriented guiding principles of drug clinical R & D, strengthen information guidance, and promote enterprises to reasonably layout R & D pipelines. 2) Improve the level of industrialization technology. Support enterprises to integrate scientific and technological resources, tackle key problems around key technologies, core equipment and new materials in the production of drugs and medical devices, develop, transform and apply a number of advanced technologies, and build new advantages in industrial technology. Focus on improving the production technology of new biological drugs, the innovative process of API, the production technology of high-end preparations, the whole process quality control technology of traditional Chinese medicine, the engineering technology of medical devices and the production technology of key components. We believe that in the R & D stage of innovative products, cro enterprises, as an important driving force of innovation, are expected to continue to benefit; As an important participant in drug production, cdmo company continues to improve the production process of API, has green chemistry, continuous reaction and other technologies, and continuously improves the preparation process. In conclusion, we believe that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the pharmaceutical industry will continue to focus on making up for weaknesses and encouraging pharmaceutical innovation. It is recommended to pay attention to Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) chain CXO company.
In terms of sector layout, we maintain the rating of “overweight” in the medical service industry, and suggest investors pay attention to the layout opportunities brought by the adjustment of sectors with Chinese advantages, and adhere to the stock selection ideas of “policy immunity” and “innovation”. Suggestions: (1) innovative drug seller “CXO” industrial chain company. (2) Private specialized medical service related companies. (3) Third party medical laboratory.
Risk tips
(1) uncertainty of policy changes; (2) The R & D investment of innovative drugs is less than expected; (3) Risk that the performance of the industry and listed companies is lower than expected.
