The revenue of 2021q4, an international equipment leader, has maintained the second highest level in recent two years and is significantly higher than the historical record, indicating that the demand of the semiconductor equipment industry remains strong. The current boom cycle of semiconductor equipment is driven by the rapid digital transformation of the global economy, the shortage of supply chain, the evolution of process nodes and other factors. The boom is high and durable. Equipment manufacturers have plenty of orders in hand to maintain the rapid growth of follow-up operations.
Key points of the report
TSMC significantly increased its capital expenditure in 2022, and the shipment amount of semiconductor equipment remained at an all-time high. TSMC plans to increase its capital expenditure to US $40-44 billion in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 1 / 3 to nearly 1 / 2, of which about 70% - 80% will be used for the research and development of advanced process technologies including 2nm, 3nm, 5nm and 7Nm. In addition, according to semi statistics, the shipment amount of North American semiconductor equipment manufacturers in December was only 0.5% lower than the historical high in November, with a year-on-year increase of 46.1%, which was the second highest level in history. TSMC's revenue capacity continued to reach a new high and significantly increased its capital expenditure. The shipment amount of semiconductor equipment in North America remained at an all-time high, indicating that the outlook of the semiconductor industry chain is still continuing.
The revenue of global semiconductor equipment leading companies increased by about 25.9% in 2021q4 and 34% in the whole year. As Amat, Tel and ASMI have not yet released their 2021q4 financial reports, according to the median performance guidelines of Amat and Tel and the average revenue of ASMI in recent three quarters, the total revenue of eight global semiconductor equipment listed enterprises in Q4 in 2021 was $25.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, and the revenue is still in a high growth trend. Throughout the year, the sales revenue of listed global semiconductor equipment enterprises exceeded US $100 billion, a year-on-year increase of 34%.
Lam research closely followed Tel, and KLA and ASML maintained the growth rate of the industry. According to the scale of operating revenue, applied materials, ASML, Tel, lamresearch, KLA and DNS are in order. Among them, the revenue of lamresearch and Tel is basically the same, while KLA expects another 20% increase in 2022 to be close to the revenue scale of US $10 billion, while ASML received 26.2 billion euros of new orders in 2021, an increase of 133% over the same period.
The revenue growth of semiconductor parts enterprises is slower than that of complete machine enterprises. According to statistics, the revenue scale of international semiconductor parts enterprises such as uct, ichor, MKS and AE increased by 22% and 22% year-on-year in the third and fourth quarters of 2021, which was more than 30% slower than the average growth rate of the industry, resulting in the shortage of global parts and components, and the delivery of complete machines was restricted to a certain extent.
The Chinese mainland is still one of the major semiconductor equipment markets in the world. According to data of AMAT, ASML, KLA, Lam, DNS and TEL, the sales revenue of semiconductor equipment from mainland China is 4 billion 721 million US dollars, accounting for 26%, a slight decrease of 5 percentage points in the Chinese mainland, and nearly 4 quarters in the 25%-30% range, which is the same as that in Taiwan, China.
Generally have high-quality orders on hand. According to the 2021q4 performance briefing of KLA, Lam, ASML and other companies, there are sufficient orders on hand and some visibility. By 2023, the subsequent parts supply will return to normal, which is expected to accelerate the implementation of orders and form revenue growth. Moreover, Chinese semiconductor equipment manufacturers such as Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) and shengmei Shanghai indicated in the performance forecast that there are sufficient orders on hand or the shipment volume doubled year-on-year, Subsequent order confirmation revenue is expected to continue high growth.
A-share semiconductor equipment company had a brilliant performance in 2021, with significant improvement in revenue and profitability. In 2021q4 / 2021, the revenue of A-share semiconductor equipment companies generally showed a high growth trend of 30% + 150%, and the net profit was close to or more than doubled. Looking forward to 2022q1 and 2022, regions around the world are making efforts to build regional wafer production capacity to meet the wave of digital economy. According to the views of the world's major semiconductor equipment manufacturers, the shortage of parts is expected to continue until the second half of 2022, the level of orders on hand is at an all-time high, and the parts manufacturers and semiconductor equipment manufacturers are still expected to continue to benefit for a long time from 2022 to 2023.
Key recommendation
The prosperity of the global semiconductor equipment industry remains at an all-time high. ASML, lamresearch and Amat are generally optimistic about the industry growth and order expectations in 2022.
Recommended combination of A-share semiconductor equipment: shengmei Shanghai, Wuhan Jingce Electronic Group Co.Ltd(300567) , Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) , Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) , Kingsemi Co.Ltd(688037) , Beijing Huafeng Test & Control Technology Co.Ltd(688200) , Hangzhou Chang Chuan Technology Co.Ltd(300604) , Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Konfoong Materials International Co.Ltd(300666) , Kunshan Kinglai Hygienic Materials Co.Ltd(300260) , Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) .
Main risks of rating
Wafer factory construction is slower than expected; International geopolitical friction and uncertainty; The shortage of parts supply has intensified.
